The popularity of cloud computing has caused the IT world to be in a chaotic transitional period. The CIOs are in the center of this storm. Their situation is similar to that of Ulysses, the protagonist between the female deacon Scull and Kalybdisdis in the Homeric epic Odyssey. Skoura symbolizes the IT rules that have been established, and Khalifushis represents the future. Both have hidden crises and troubles. Like Ulysses, many CIOs must allow themselves to resist the female sirens' whistle and rationally purchase software, hardware, or cloud services. Those who advocate painless cloud migration are just like female demon slobbers.
We can imagine that the chief information officer will eventually overcome the difficulties and enter the calm waters like Ulysses. In the future, new programs and products will replace what is currently in use, but these things in use constitute our current IT world. And those new products are collectively called cloud computing.
Because we are in a turbulent transformation, it is difficult to predict what the new world looks like. However, in my opinion, we still have confidence in predicting how the cloud computing revolution broke out. The light that cloud computing discovers is so dazzling that these lights are enough to roughly outline the post-cloud computing era.
Compared with today's IT practices, cloud computing is no longer an option in the post-cloud computing era. It is a standard way of handling things. Today, cloud computing is seen as an unsettling factor that perturbs the existing rules of the IT society. However, one day, cloud computing will become the mainstream of the IT world.
So what is the mainstream of the future IT world? Here are some of our predictions:
Large-scale computing is commonplace and every system is designed to handle large amounts of data. Each application is resilient and can be adjusted based on the flow of "data floods." When the system is designed, no one will ask questions about capacity, because everyone will think that potential capacity may be unlimited. Therefore, the design work is assumed to be that no matter how much data the application is managing, or how many virtual machines the application topology contains, it must be able to scale to handle more. In fact, we can think of the system as being created for "infinite capacity."
The Internet of Things gets popular The Cisco CTO predicts that in the near future, one trillion devices will be connected to the Internet. Many people predict that we are entering the post-PC era.
We realize that we will enter a device world of "post-human center." There will be many devices that can interact with humans, such as computers, PCs, smartphones, and tablets. In fact, we will be surrounded by more and more special-purpose devices to perform a function and communicate with the central program running in the cloud, which will take turns interacting with what we think is valuable.
For example, we don't need to watch a watch to read our blood pressure. The watch measures our blood pressure and then sends the data to the blood pressure monitoring system. If our health condition exceeds the normal medical range and specific values, the system will alert health care personnel. We will be surrounded by such devices, but we do not need to pay attention to them unless we need to pay attention.
It is not a simple matter to understand how this trend develops. Even the dynamic industry insiders often underestimate what will happen. Ten years ago, I discussed the prototype of a smart refrigerator with the CEO of an analog chip company and was recognized by an equipment manufacturer. The CEO stated that the refrigerator will have an interface in the future. In this interface, you can develop your shopping list based on the quantity of things in the refrigerator.
My understanding is that the milk carton should be able to determine how much milk is left, and then inform the refrigerator to add milk to the shopping list. His answer is negative. He thinks the cost is too high, so milk packaging cartons will not have this function. Subsequently, the CEO began to discuss the relationship between cost and function, rather than continue to discuss how to promote the development of this trend.
In this matter, it is clear that this CEO underestimated the development of things. In fact, my understanding is correct. Today, milk cartons can be contacted with a cloud-based shopping list application. The app will contact your chosen purchase store and arrange a shopping list including milk. As I wrote this article, I also saw a video provided by Toyota Motor Co., which showed how auto glass became an interactive device. In the future, the number of unattended computing devices will far exceed the number of devices that interact with people. This moment is not far from us.
The cost of IT components will drop drastically. I do not refer to chips and hard disks. I mean, every part of the IT supply chain. Operating systems, middleware, and application software—Although they currently resist commercialization, they will become cheaper in the future. If not, then they will be replaced by free open source software components.
Why do I predict this? Obviously, if we want to achieve the predicted scale, then the individual components must be made cheaper. There is no other way. At present, I have heard many people talk about software vendors not allowing migration to the cloud to prevent their profits from being eroded. If these firms resist this trend, new entrants with more reasonable pricing will replace them in the market.
In spite of this, IT spending will increase by a large margin. Here we need to discuss the Jevons paradox. People cut service costs, not the entire expenditure, and actually increase spending. IT capabilities have stimulated current commercial applications, which in turn has boosted spending growth. Each new business application contains IT, so the move to promote new business supply growth is to increase IT investment. The difference between this situation and the current one is that IT is not a rear support office but will directly face customers. The long-term goal of the IT department should be to become a business partner, rather than wait until something goes wrong and then "fire."
IT department restructures IT
Being part of the business on the other hand means running like business. This part requires cost transparency. The emergence of public cloud service providers provides a benchmark for internal IT departments. Failure to provide reasonable transparency means death.
The transparency of costs will affect deployment decisions. When making decisions, costs will be one of the important considerations. In addition, factors such as privacy, regulatory compliance, and application bandwidth/delay requirements need to be considered. These factors determine whether the application is deployed internally or externally. The wise CIO recognizes that their role is to manage the infrastructure rather than owning those assets.
In the post-cloud computing era, the biggest challenge for IT organizations is the legacy system. These systems seriously affect the ability of IT organizations to meet the needs of business users. In the post-cloud computing era, legacy applications could not be fully managed at very low extra expenses. Even with some additional investment, these applications make the cost structure of maintenance and other aspects higher than the current cost structure. For IT organizations, they must reduce the cost of legacy systems. For example, some companies are currently transferring mail systems to external service providers. IT organizations must deal with these legacy applications drastically. Otherwise, some indispensable items will lack sufficient capital budget. Each CIO needs to evaluate existing systems and plan to reduce their costs, or replace them with similarly functional SaaS services, or outsource these services to lower-cost service providers.
PaaS will gradually become popular with many people who regard cloud computing as virtual machines on demand. However, the rapid development of cloud computing has exceeded people's imagination. If application developers must design applications with extensibility and flexibility, they are certainly wasting their time. Infrastructure can solve these problems. They will free up application developers and let them focus on business functions. This method is PaaS (Platform as a Service). IT organizations in the Post-Cloud era will rely heavily on PaaS to manage basic functions and infrastructure through internal or external agencies.
The shortage of application developers The Jevons paradox means an explosion in IT requirements, especially for application developers. People who know how to develop business applications will integrate multiple applications into one new application and be able to connect proficiently to external APIs. The demand for such services is very high. The rise of PaaS has also driven demand for application developers. High production efficiency means low unit costs, which also leads to an increase in demand.
However, this does not mean that there is a shortage of all application developers. It also has nothing to do with understanding the language or framework. The development of such applications is like a general contractor who integrates a range of internal and external components and services to provide the functionality the user needs. As IT investments shift to applications, there will be a shortage of people who can write applications in the post-cloud era, just like cloud computing CIOs. Now you should start thinking about how to recruit such talents.
We can imagine that the chief information officer will eventually overcome the difficulties and enter the calm waters like Ulysses. In the future, new programs and products will replace what is currently in use, but these things in use constitute our current IT world. And those new products are collectively called cloud computing.
Because we are in a turbulent transformation, it is difficult to predict what the new world looks like. However, in my opinion, we still have confidence in predicting how the cloud computing revolution broke out. The light that cloud computing discovers is so dazzling that these lights are enough to roughly outline the post-cloud computing era.
Compared with today's IT practices, cloud computing is no longer an option in the post-cloud computing era. It is a standard way of handling things. Today, cloud computing is seen as an unsettling factor that perturbs the existing rules of the IT society. However, one day, cloud computing will become the mainstream of the IT world.
So what is the mainstream of the future IT world? Here are some of our predictions:
Large-scale computing is commonplace and every system is designed to handle large amounts of data. Each application is resilient and can be adjusted based on the flow of "data floods." When the system is designed, no one will ask questions about capacity, because everyone will think that potential capacity may be unlimited. Therefore, the design work is assumed to be that no matter how much data the application is managing, or how many virtual machines the application topology contains, it must be able to scale to handle more. In fact, we can think of the system as being created for "infinite capacity."
The Internet of Things gets popular The Cisco CTO predicts that in the near future, one trillion devices will be connected to the Internet. Many people predict that we are entering the post-PC era.
We realize that we will enter a device world of "post-human center." There will be many devices that can interact with humans, such as computers, PCs, smartphones, and tablets. In fact, we will be surrounded by more and more special-purpose devices to perform a function and communicate with the central program running in the cloud, which will take turns interacting with what we think is valuable.
For example, we don't need to watch a watch to read our blood pressure. The watch measures our blood pressure and then sends the data to the blood pressure monitoring system. If our health condition exceeds the normal medical range and specific values, the system will alert health care personnel. We will be surrounded by such devices, but we do not need to pay attention to them unless we need to pay attention.
It is not a simple matter to understand how this trend develops. Even the dynamic industry insiders often underestimate what will happen. Ten years ago, I discussed the prototype of a smart refrigerator with the CEO of an analog chip company and was recognized by an equipment manufacturer. The CEO stated that the refrigerator will have an interface in the future. In this interface, you can develop your shopping list based on the quantity of things in the refrigerator.
My understanding is that the milk carton should be able to determine how much milk is left, and then inform the refrigerator to add milk to the shopping list. His answer is negative. He thinks the cost is too high, so milk packaging cartons will not have this function. Subsequently, the CEO began to discuss the relationship between cost and function, rather than continue to discuss how to promote the development of this trend.
In this matter, it is clear that this CEO underestimated the development of things. In fact, my understanding is correct. Today, milk cartons can be contacted with a cloud-based shopping list application. The app will contact your chosen purchase store and arrange a shopping list including milk. As I wrote this article, I also saw a video provided by Toyota Motor Co., which showed how auto glass became an interactive device. In the future, the number of unattended computing devices will far exceed the number of devices that interact with people. This moment is not far from us.
The cost of IT components will drop drastically. I do not refer to chips and hard disks. I mean, every part of the IT supply chain. Operating systems, middleware, and application software—Although they currently resist commercialization, they will become cheaper in the future. If not, then they will be replaced by free open source software components.
Why do I predict this? Obviously, if we want to achieve the predicted scale, then the individual components must be made cheaper. There is no other way. At present, I have heard many people talk about software vendors not allowing migration to the cloud to prevent their profits from being eroded. If these firms resist this trend, new entrants with more reasonable pricing will replace them in the market.
In spite of this, IT spending will increase by a large margin. Here we need to discuss the Jevons paradox. People cut service costs, not the entire expenditure, and actually increase spending. IT capabilities have stimulated current commercial applications, which in turn has boosted spending growth. Each new business application contains IT, so the move to promote new business supply growth is to increase IT investment. The difference between this situation and the current one is that IT is not a rear support office but will directly face customers. The long-term goal of the IT department should be to become a business partner, rather than wait until something goes wrong and then "fire."
IT department restructures IT
Being part of the business on the other hand means running like business. This part requires cost transparency. The emergence of public cloud service providers provides a benchmark for internal IT departments. Failure to provide reasonable transparency means death.
The transparency of costs will affect deployment decisions. When making decisions, costs will be one of the important considerations. In addition, factors such as privacy, regulatory compliance, and application bandwidth/delay requirements need to be considered. These factors determine whether the application is deployed internally or externally. The wise CIO recognizes that their role is to manage the infrastructure rather than owning those assets.
In the post-cloud computing era, the biggest challenge for IT organizations is the legacy system. These systems seriously affect the ability of IT organizations to meet the needs of business users. In the post-cloud computing era, legacy applications could not be fully managed at very low extra expenses. Even with some additional investment, these applications make the cost structure of maintenance and other aspects higher than the current cost structure. For IT organizations, they must reduce the cost of legacy systems. For example, some companies are currently transferring mail systems to external service providers. IT organizations must deal with these legacy applications drastically. Otherwise, some indispensable items will lack sufficient capital budget. Each CIO needs to evaluate existing systems and plan to reduce their costs, or replace them with similarly functional SaaS services, or outsource these services to lower-cost service providers.
PaaS will gradually become popular with many people who regard cloud computing as virtual machines on demand. However, the rapid development of cloud computing has exceeded people's imagination. If application developers must design applications with extensibility and flexibility, they are certainly wasting their time. Infrastructure can solve these problems. They will free up application developers and let them focus on business functions. This method is PaaS (Platform as a Service). IT organizations in the Post-Cloud era will rely heavily on PaaS to manage basic functions and infrastructure through internal or external agencies.
The shortage of application developers The Jevons paradox means an explosion in IT requirements, especially for application developers. People who know how to develop business applications will integrate multiple applications into one new application and be able to connect proficiently to external APIs. The demand for such services is very high. The rise of PaaS has also driven demand for application developers. High production efficiency means low unit costs, which also leads to an increase in demand.
However, this does not mean that there is a shortage of all application developers. It also has nothing to do with understanding the language or framework. The development of such applications is like a general contractor who integrates a range of internal and external components and services to provide the functionality the user needs. As IT investments shift to applications, there will be a shortage of people who can write applications in the post-cloud era, just like cloud computing CIOs. Now you should start thinking about how to recruit such talents.
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