——The export of controlled “two high and one capital†products affected the decline of western resources products. The export growth was difficult. The growth rate in the first half of the year decreased by 23.5%.
Exports, investment and consumption are the “troikas†that drive economic growth. The difficulty in exporting in the first half of this year is the main factor leading to the decline in China’s economic growth.
Since November last year, China’s exports have plunged into high waters, and the growth rate has dropped to a negative number. In the first half of this year, exports showed a deep decline, with the decline basically staying at around 20%, and in May it reached 26.4%. Although slightly improved in June, the decline still reached 21.4%. From January to June, the country completed import and export of 946.12 billion US dollars, an increase of -23.5%.
Relevant experts believe that the shrinking external demand market, trade protectionism, and passive appreciation of the renminbi are the main reasons why exports have been difficult in the first half of the year. The biggest reason for the decline in exports from the eastern foreign trade provinces is the impact of the shrinkage of the external demand market. In comparison, the biggest reason for the decline in exports of resource products in the central and western regions is to prevent the export of high-energy, high-pollution and resource products. China has successively adopted measures such as lowering or canceling export tax rebates, increasing export tariffs, and listing in the prohibited categories of processing trade commodities. The total export volume of mineral resources products has shown a significant decline.
Guangdong's total import and export value is still ranked first in the country
Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the total import and export trade volume of Guangdong, the largest foreign trade province, was 257.87 billion US dollars, ranking first in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, accounting for 27.3% of the country's total import and export value; the growth rate was lower than the same period last year. 20.7%, which is less than the national decline of 23.5%, and is also significantly smaller than the decline of major foreign trade provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing. From the monthly trend, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export decline has slowly narrowed, and in June it has narrowed to this year. The smallest drop since.
From the data analysis, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export has the following main characteristics: the rapid growth of general trade exports, higher than the growth rate of the country's general trade exports; the import and export of processing trade accounts for nearly 40% of the country's total processing trade; the total import and export of foreign-invested enterprises The value of Guangdong accounted for more than 60% of the total value of foreign trade; exports are still dominated by mechanical and electrical products and traditional bulk commodities. Imports, mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products, crude oil have increased substantially; with Hong Kong, the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN five major trading partners Foreign trade has maintained growth.
The reasons for the slowdown in the export of traditional labor-intensive products in Guangdong, the relevant experts pointed out that the competitiveness of Guangdong enterprises and the international market share are generally stable. With the support of policies such as the increase in export tax rebate rate, the international competitiveness of labor-intensive goods such as clothing, bags, shoes and furniture has emerged.
Governments at all levels introduce new policies to expand exports
In order to stabilize foreign demand and expand exports, from central to local, government departments at all levels have adopted a series of policy measures.
First, promote trade facilitation, improve the efficiency of customs clearance and inspection and quarantine of goods, reduce the entry and exit inspection and quarantine fees for agricultural products and the export inspection fees for textiles and garments, and adjust the online verification system for export receipts and payments.
Second, increase fiscal and tax support, increase the export tax rebate rate for some products for seven consecutive times, introduce support policies for short-term export credit insurance, reduce the rate, and expand coverage. By the first half of this year, the scale of short-term export credit insurance has increased by 31%. Around, especially in the month of June, the growth exceeded 100%.
The third is to support small and medium-sized enterprises to explore the international market, foster export brands, and establish independent marketing networks.
The fourth is to improve financial services for import and export, suspend processing trade restrictions on commodity margin accounts, encourage and support credit guarantee institutions to provide guarantees for SME trade financing, implement policies to expand credit coverage and reduce insurance rates, short-term in the first half of the year. The cumulative underwriting amount of insurance was US$24.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%.
The fifth is to create a good international economic and trade environment, pay close attention to the export of important exhibitions, speed up the construction of the free trade zone, actively promote the Doha Round negotiations, resolutely oppose trade protectionism, and successfully deal with many major trade friction cases.
Western provinces and resource products export provinces and regions have a larger decline
Statistics show that in the first half of this year, Shanxi's foreign trade import and export growth rate fell by 54.6% year-on-year, followed by Gansu's decline of 53%, Ningxia's decline of 45.8%, Yunnan's decline of 45.6%, and Xinjiang's decline of 37.7%.
According to expert analysis, these provinces mainly export resource products such as coke, coal, magnesium, steel, ferrosilicon and non-ferrous metals. In order to prevent excessive export of resources, China has successively adopted measures such as lowering or canceling export tax rebates, adding export tariffs, and listing prohibited commodities in processing trade to curb the massive export of mineral resources products, and the total export volume of mineral resources products has shown a significant decline. At the same time, the continued decline in the international economy has led to a shrinking of foreign demand, and the depreciation of some countries' currencies has also led to a decline in the competitiveness of export products.
The eastern province of foreign trade is obviously affected by the shrinking of external demand.
In the first half of this year, the growth rate of imports and exports in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian decreased by 16.5%~33.5%, of which Beijing had the highest decline. The total import and export value of the above seven provinces accounted for 79.8 of the total import and export value of the same period. %. Taking Zhejiang as an example, Zhejiang is a big foreign trade province, and the province's economy has a dependence on foreign trade of up to 70%. The spread of the global financial crisis has caused the province's foreign trade exports to “four fallâ€, that is, the export growth rate has continued to fall, the export growth of private enterprises has declined, and the growth rate of exports to major markets such as the United States and Japan has dropped significantly, with textiles, clothing, furniture, The export of labor-intensive products, mainly shoes, bags, plastic products and toys, fell sharply, and the direct impact on the province's economy was very serious.
At the same time, the financial crisis through the capital market and the real economy, resulting in a significant decline in the stocks of residents, income growth slowed down, thereby suppressing consumer demand, investment confidence and corporate investment expectations, but also affecting the foreign investment and M&A activities of some multinational companies. Some enterprises have broken their capital chains, which has an impact on economic and financial security.
Experts predict that exports will be better than the first half of the year
"The real improvement of China's export situation ultimately depends on the speed of global economic recovery. From now on, the global panic stage has passed, but whether the global economy will begin to recover, it still needs to be observed." Minister Zhang Xiaoji said recently.
Experts believe that the decline in China's import decline in the first half of the year is far greater than exports, indicating that the recovery of domestic demand is significantly better than external demand. However, from the perspective of the whole year, exports in the second half of the year may be better than in the first half of the year, and the decline will gradually narrow.
"Currently, external demand is gradually seeing the bottom, and China's recent policy of stabilizing external demand will gradually take effect. In the process of responding to the crisis, the provinces and regions have shown strong adaptability and development momentum. Let people export prospects for the second half of the year. There is expectation." Zhang Xiaoji believes that the export situation in the third and fourth quarters will improve, taking into account the improvement of the external market and the time-delay characteristics of the policy. However, due to the high base in the same period last year, it is less likely that the year-on-year decline in exports will be significantly narrowed in the third quarter of this year. The current and future period, the shrinking of external demand and the decline in exports are still the biggest difficulties facing China's economic growth. Stabilizing foreign trade has a bearing on the employment of tens of millions of people. To this end, while basing on expanding domestic demand, we need to continue to do everything possible to stabilize external demand.
“In the midst of the crisis, the international market share of some products in China is still expanding, indicating that there is still room for development in the external market. Currently, what is most needed is to implement the policies of the country’s stable external demand and to diversify and diversify the export. Kung Fu." Zhang Xiaoji suggested.
Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the current shrinkage of external demand is both cyclical and structural. After the crisis, the world’s demand for Chinese products may not be as strong as it was before the crisis. In the second half of the year, exporting companies should focus on innovation in products, technologies, markets, etc., and strive to enhance their competitiveness. The state does not need to introduce a new aggregate policy, but should further deepen the reform and create a good environment for enterprises to survive the crisis.
How foreign trade companies respond to orders reduction
Relevant experts suggest that although the country has introduced corresponding export tax rebates and bank interest rate cuts to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis, this only temporarily eased the plight of foreign trade enterprises. Enterprises should find a way out from their own development and economic laws.
There are three main impacts of the financial crisis on foreign trade enterprises: First, the production and operating costs of enterprises have risen, and profit margins have tightened. Second, customer demand in the European and American markets declined and orders decreased. Third, the capital chain of enterprises has been cut off, and it is difficult to recover overseas payment. Experts suggest that small and medium-sized export enterprises should build their own brands and enhance their own competitiveness.
First, make good use of working capital, shrink long-term investment, carefully accept long-term orders or arrears orders, and do not blindly expand.
Second, manage the accounts receivable, do not form bad, bad accounts; for those customers whose money can not be returned in time, close monitoring. Discard these customers if necessary.
Third, in the customer service on the whole process to track feedback, to ensure that customer service in time, to provide customers with the support we can do.
Fourth, strengthen the internal construction of the enterprise, rationally deploy the employees, let the personnel advantage reach the limit, avoid layoffs to reduce production efficiency, and affect the stability of the company.
Fifth, open up new markets, such as Russia, India, Central and South America.
6. Build an e-commerce platform that operates independently, integrate resources, and promote overseas.
Exports, investment and consumption are the “troikas†that drive economic growth. The difficulty in exporting in the first half of this year is the main factor leading to the decline in China’s economic growth.
Since November last year, China’s exports have plunged into high waters, and the growth rate has dropped to a negative number. In the first half of this year, exports showed a deep decline, with the decline basically staying at around 20%, and in May it reached 26.4%. Although slightly improved in June, the decline still reached 21.4%. From January to June, the country completed import and export of 946.12 billion US dollars, an increase of -23.5%.
Relevant experts believe that the shrinking external demand market, trade protectionism, and passive appreciation of the renminbi are the main reasons why exports have been difficult in the first half of the year. The biggest reason for the decline in exports from the eastern foreign trade provinces is the impact of the shrinkage of the external demand market. In comparison, the biggest reason for the decline in exports of resource products in the central and western regions is to prevent the export of high-energy, high-pollution and resource products. China has successively adopted measures such as lowering or canceling export tax rebates, increasing export tariffs, and listing in the prohibited categories of processing trade commodities. The total export volume of mineral resources products has shown a significant decline.
Guangdong's total import and export value is still ranked first in the country
Statistics show that in the first half of this year, the total import and export trade volume of Guangdong, the largest foreign trade province, was 257.87 billion US dollars, ranking first in all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, accounting for 27.3% of the country's total import and export value; the growth rate was lower than the same period last year. 20.7%, which is less than the national decline of 23.5%, and is also significantly smaller than the decline of major foreign trade provinces and cities such as Jiangsu, Shanghai and Beijing. From the monthly trend, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export decline has slowly narrowed, and in June it has narrowed to this year. The smallest drop since.
From the data analysis, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export has the following main characteristics: the rapid growth of general trade exports, higher than the growth rate of the country's general trade exports; the import and export of processing trade accounts for nearly 40% of the country's total processing trade; the total import and export of foreign-invested enterprises The value of Guangdong accounted for more than 60% of the total value of foreign trade; exports are still dominated by mechanical and electrical products and traditional bulk commodities. Imports, mechanical and electrical products, high-tech products, crude oil have increased substantially; with Hong Kong, the United States, the European Union, Japan and ASEAN five major trading partners Foreign trade has maintained growth.
The reasons for the slowdown in the export of traditional labor-intensive products in Guangdong, the relevant experts pointed out that the competitiveness of Guangdong enterprises and the international market share are generally stable. With the support of policies such as the increase in export tax rebate rate, the international competitiveness of labor-intensive goods such as clothing, bags, shoes and furniture has emerged.
Governments at all levels introduce new policies to expand exports
In order to stabilize foreign demand and expand exports, from central to local, government departments at all levels have adopted a series of policy measures.
First, promote trade facilitation, improve the efficiency of customs clearance and inspection and quarantine of goods, reduce the entry and exit inspection and quarantine fees for agricultural products and the export inspection fees for textiles and garments, and adjust the online verification system for export receipts and payments.
Second, increase fiscal and tax support, increase the export tax rebate rate for some products for seven consecutive times, introduce support policies for short-term export credit insurance, reduce the rate, and expand coverage. By the first half of this year, the scale of short-term export credit insurance has increased by 31%. Around, especially in the month of June, the growth exceeded 100%.
The third is to support small and medium-sized enterprises to explore the international market, foster export brands, and establish independent marketing networks.
The fourth is to improve financial services for import and export, suspend processing trade restrictions on commodity margin accounts, encourage and support credit guarantee institutions to provide guarantees for SME trade financing, implement policies to expand credit coverage and reduce insurance rates, short-term in the first half of the year. The cumulative underwriting amount of insurance was US$24.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.5%.
The fifth is to create a good international economic and trade environment, pay close attention to the export of important exhibitions, speed up the construction of the free trade zone, actively promote the Doha Round negotiations, resolutely oppose trade protectionism, and successfully deal with many major trade friction cases.
Western provinces and resource products export provinces and regions have a larger decline
Statistics show that in the first half of this year, Shanxi's foreign trade import and export growth rate fell by 54.6% year-on-year, followed by Gansu's decline of 53%, Ningxia's decline of 45.8%, Yunnan's decline of 45.6%, and Xinjiang's decline of 37.7%.
According to expert analysis, these provinces mainly export resource products such as coke, coal, magnesium, steel, ferrosilicon and non-ferrous metals. In order to prevent excessive export of resources, China has successively adopted measures such as lowering or canceling export tax rebates, adding export tariffs, and listing prohibited commodities in processing trade to curb the massive export of mineral resources products, and the total export volume of mineral resources products has shown a significant decline. At the same time, the continued decline in the international economy has led to a shrinking of foreign demand, and the depreciation of some countries' currencies has also led to a decline in the competitiveness of export products.
The eastern province of foreign trade is obviously affected by the shrinking of external demand.
In the first half of this year, the growth rate of imports and exports in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing, Zhejiang, Shandong and Fujian decreased by 16.5%~33.5%, of which Beijing had the highest decline. The total import and export value of the above seven provinces accounted for 79.8 of the total import and export value of the same period. %. Taking Zhejiang as an example, Zhejiang is a big foreign trade province, and the province's economy has a dependence on foreign trade of up to 70%. The spread of the global financial crisis has caused the province's foreign trade exports to “four fallâ€, that is, the export growth rate has continued to fall, the export growth of private enterprises has declined, and the growth rate of exports to major markets such as the United States and Japan has dropped significantly, with textiles, clothing, furniture, The export of labor-intensive products, mainly shoes, bags, plastic products and toys, fell sharply, and the direct impact on the province's economy was very serious.
At the same time, the financial crisis through the capital market and the real economy, resulting in a significant decline in the stocks of residents, income growth slowed down, thereby suppressing consumer demand, investment confidence and corporate investment expectations, but also affecting the foreign investment and M&A activities of some multinational companies. Some enterprises have broken their capital chains, which has an impact on economic and financial security.
Experts predict that exports will be better than the first half of the year
"The real improvement of China's export situation ultimately depends on the speed of global economic recovery. From now on, the global panic stage has passed, but whether the global economy will begin to recover, it still needs to be observed." Minister Zhang Xiaoji said recently.
Experts believe that the decline in China's import decline in the first half of the year is far greater than exports, indicating that the recovery of domestic demand is significantly better than external demand. However, from the perspective of the whole year, exports in the second half of the year may be better than in the first half of the year, and the decline will gradually narrow.
"Currently, external demand is gradually seeing the bottom, and China's recent policy of stabilizing external demand will gradually take effect. In the process of responding to the crisis, the provinces and regions have shown strong adaptability and development momentum. Let people export prospects for the second half of the year. There is expectation." Zhang Xiaoji believes that the export situation in the third and fourth quarters will improve, taking into account the improvement of the external market and the time-delay characteristics of the policy. However, due to the high base in the same period last year, it is less likely that the year-on-year decline in exports will be significantly narrowed in the third quarter of this year. The current and future period, the shrinking of external demand and the decline in exports are still the biggest difficulties facing China's economic growth. Stabilizing foreign trade has a bearing on the employment of tens of millions of people. To this end, while basing on expanding domestic demand, we need to continue to do everything possible to stabilize external demand.
“In the midst of the crisis, the international market share of some products in China is still expanding, indicating that there is still room for development in the external market. Currently, what is most needed is to implement the policies of the country’s stable external demand and to diversify and diversify the export. Kung Fu." Zhang Xiaoji suggested.
Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that the current shrinkage of external demand is both cyclical and structural. After the crisis, the world’s demand for Chinese products may not be as strong as it was before the crisis. In the second half of the year, exporting companies should focus on innovation in products, technologies, markets, etc., and strive to enhance their competitiveness. The state does not need to introduce a new aggregate policy, but should further deepen the reform and create a good environment for enterprises to survive the crisis.
How foreign trade companies respond to orders reduction
Relevant experts suggest that although the country has introduced corresponding export tax rebates and bank interest rate cuts to alleviate the impact of the financial crisis, this only temporarily eased the plight of foreign trade enterprises. Enterprises should find a way out from their own development and economic laws.
There are three main impacts of the financial crisis on foreign trade enterprises: First, the production and operating costs of enterprises have risen, and profit margins have tightened. Second, customer demand in the European and American markets declined and orders decreased. Third, the capital chain of enterprises has been cut off, and it is difficult to recover overseas payment. Experts suggest that small and medium-sized export enterprises should build their own brands and enhance their own competitiveness.
First, make good use of working capital, shrink long-term investment, carefully accept long-term orders or arrears orders, and do not blindly expand.
Second, manage the accounts receivable, do not form bad, bad accounts; for those customers whose money can not be returned in time, close monitoring. Discard these customers if necessary.
Third, in the customer service on the whole process to track feedback, to ensure that customer service in time, to provide customers with the support we can do.
Fourth, strengthen the internal construction of the enterprise, rationally deploy the employees, let the personnel advantage reach the limit, avoid layoffs to reduce production efficiency, and affect the stability of the company.
Fifth, open up new markets, such as Russia, India, Central and South America.
6. Build an e-commerce platform that operates independently, integrate resources, and promote overseas.
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