After nearly a decade of rapid development of land-based wind power in China, the current upward growth has been quite limited. "Daily Economic News" reporter learned that compared with onshore, offshore wind power has three major advantages, will make the industry's future development focus on the sea; the future as a benchmark for industry development, the concession tender will also be transferred to offshore wind power project.
According to the latest development plans for offshore wind power disclosed by the National Energy Administration earlier this month, a rough calculation shows that the incremental market space brought by offshore wind power in the next ten years will be over 100 billion yuan.
Offshore wind power has three advantages Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., told reporters that there is a large-scale construction space for offshore wind power, combined with the use of wind turbines with larger single-capacity capacity, and will be superior to onshore wind power in terms of economies of scale.
First, in terms of the quality of wind energy resources, terrain, buildings, etc. on the land often become shelters, weakening the wind and wind speed. However, at sea, there is no need to worry about this issue. This is usually expressed in the industry as "high density of effective wind energy resources."
Even in the north and northwestern provinces, the power generation volume tends to fluctuate greatly due to the difficulty in maintaining constant wind speed and wind power. “In this case, in order to maintain the uninterrupted grid-connected operation of wind turbines, low-voltage ride-through technology is needed to solve them,†said Li Shengmao.
The actual situation is that the State Electricity Regulatory Commission notified the two large wind turbine generators in the first half of the year in April and May of this year. The reason is that one of the reasons is that most of the operating units do not have low voltage ride through capability. The wind and wind speeds of offshore wind power can be maintained at a relatively constant level. The apparently low volatility can allow offshore wind power to enter an almost “all year round†state.
In terms of cost, offshore wind power also dominates. Li Shengmao told reporters that most of the offshore wind farms are located in intertidal areas, coastal tidal flats, and offshore waters. Although land occupation is also involved, compared to land-occupying wind farms that use farmland and pay compensation for demolition and relocation, the amount of money to be paid is significantly lower. many.
In addition, geographically speaking, offshore wind power development areas are all coastal areas, and these areas are concentrated in China's provinces with large electricity load. In terms of power transmission, it is only necessary to consider that electricity is sent ashore from the sea. Compared with onshore wind power, “a thousand miles of electricity transmission†has greatly reduced the loss and attenuation of electricity. Secondly, large-scale construction of UHV transmission lines has also been saved. investment.
The reality that land-based wind power has reached the ceiling is another reality. After several years of rapid growth, China’s onshore wind power has clearly entered a stage of steady development. In terms of incremental markets, land space in the future will be less than sea.
According to the statistics of the China Wind Energy Association, by 2009, the annual installed capacity of wind power in China has doubled. However, in 2010, domestic newly installed capacity only increased by 37.1% over 2009, which was the first slowdown in growth rate.
However, the offshore wind market is just starting and the incremental market space is opening. According to the statement made by the National Energy Administration at the National Offshore Wind Work Conference this month, it is planned that by 2015, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power will increase to 5000MW, and in 2020 this scale will increase to 30,000MW.
The cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China was 44,700 MW at the end of 2010, which is the scale of the installed capacity that China has developed over the past decade. It seems that there will be a gap between offshore wind power and “rebuilding a market the same size as land†in the next ten years, but the actual progress may be faster than expected. At the same meeting, Liu Qi, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said that it is now included. The government-level offshore wind power project has reached 2588MW and will strive to implement the mid-term goal of 5000MW by 2012.
As for the future capacity of offshore wind power market, “Daily Economic News†reporter has made a rough estimate: the unit price will be the average price of 3,500 yuan/KW for the 1.5MW model on land, and the incremental market amount for 30,000MW offshore wind power will reach 1050. 100 million yuan.
Of course, the accuracy of this algorithm is not high, because the current offshore wind power equipment prices are higher than on land, and the higher the stand-alone capacity, the higher the price will be; however, the future construction cost of offshore wind power will decrease year by year. Therefore, the data of 105.0 billion yuan only presents a rough concept to the readers.
In addition, it is worth noting that the large-scale bidding for reaching the concession level in the future will no longer be carried out on land-based wind power, which has become a consensus in the industry. Tao Gang, vice president of Sinovel Wind, said that in the future, the concession bidding will only be done at sea, and the land will be tendered on a small scale.
According to the latest development plans for offshore wind power disclosed by the National Energy Administration earlier this month, a rough calculation shows that the incremental market space brought by offshore wind power in the next ten years will be over 100 billion yuan.
Offshore wind power has three advantages Li Shengmao, a senior researcher at China Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., told reporters that there is a large-scale construction space for offshore wind power, combined with the use of wind turbines with larger single-capacity capacity, and will be superior to onshore wind power in terms of economies of scale.
First, in terms of the quality of wind energy resources, terrain, buildings, etc. on the land often become shelters, weakening the wind and wind speed. However, at sea, there is no need to worry about this issue. This is usually expressed in the industry as "high density of effective wind energy resources."
Even in the north and northwestern provinces, the power generation volume tends to fluctuate greatly due to the difficulty in maintaining constant wind speed and wind power. “In this case, in order to maintain the uninterrupted grid-connected operation of wind turbines, low-voltage ride-through technology is needed to solve them,†said Li Shengmao.
The actual situation is that the State Electricity Regulatory Commission notified the two large wind turbine generators in the first half of the year in April and May of this year. The reason is that one of the reasons is that most of the operating units do not have low voltage ride through capability. The wind and wind speeds of offshore wind power can be maintained at a relatively constant level. The apparently low volatility can allow offshore wind power to enter an almost “all year round†state.
In terms of cost, offshore wind power also dominates. Li Shengmao told reporters that most of the offshore wind farms are located in intertidal areas, coastal tidal flats, and offshore waters. Although land occupation is also involved, compared to land-occupying wind farms that use farmland and pay compensation for demolition and relocation, the amount of money to be paid is significantly lower. many.
In addition, geographically speaking, offshore wind power development areas are all coastal areas, and these areas are concentrated in China's provinces with large electricity load. In terms of power transmission, it is only necessary to consider that electricity is sent ashore from the sea. Compared with onshore wind power, “a thousand miles of electricity transmission†has greatly reduced the loss and attenuation of electricity. Secondly, large-scale construction of UHV transmission lines has also been saved. investment.
The reality that land-based wind power has reached the ceiling is another reality. After several years of rapid growth, China’s onshore wind power has clearly entered a stage of steady development. In terms of incremental markets, land space in the future will be less than sea.
According to the statistics of the China Wind Energy Association, by 2009, the annual installed capacity of wind power in China has doubled. However, in 2010, domestic newly installed capacity only increased by 37.1% over 2009, which was the first slowdown in growth rate.
However, the offshore wind market is just starting and the incremental market space is opening. According to the statement made by the National Energy Administration at the National Offshore Wind Work Conference this month, it is planned that by 2015, the total installed capacity of offshore wind power will increase to 5000MW, and in 2020 this scale will increase to 30,000MW.
The cumulative installed capacity of wind power in China was 44,700 MW at the end of 2010, which is the scale of the installed capacity that China has developed over the past decade. It seems that there will be a gap between offshore wind power and “rebuilding a market the same size as land†in the next ten years, but the actual progress may be faster than expected. At the same meeting, Liu Qi, deputy director of the National Energy Administration, said that it is now included. The government-level offshore wind power project has reached 2588MW and will strive to implement the mid-term goal of 5000MW by 2012.
As for the future capacity of offshore wind power market, “Daily Economic News†reporter has made a rough estimate: the unit price will be the average price of 3,500 yuan/KW for the 1.5MW model on land, and the incremental market amount for 30,000MW offshore wind power will reach 1050. 100 million yuan.
Of course, the accuracy of this algorithm is not high, because the current offshore wind power equipment prices are higher than on land, and the higher the stand-alone capacity, the higher the price will be; however, the future construction cost of offshore wind power will decrease year by year. Therefore, the data of 105.0 billion yuan only presents a rough concept to the readers.
In addition, it is worth noting that the large-scale bidding for reaching the concession level in the future will no longer be carried out on land-based wind power, which has become a consensus in the industry. Tao Gang, vice president of Sinovel Wind, said that in the future, the concession bidding will only be done at sea, and the land will be tendered on a small scale.
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