LME Market Review: LME Market: Christmas Closed Shanghai Jinpeng: Metal Daily Commentary (copper) 2004-12-27 Shanghai Copper continues to strengthen today, although London Copper is still in the Christmas holiday, but domestic bulls are once again making efforts, with the main March contract. The closing price was 28,720 yuan, up 320 yuan over the previous trading day. In terms of fundamentals, last week's stocks increased by more than 4,400 tons, but compared with nearly 280,000 hand positions in the past three months, the current inventory is still insignificant. In the same situation, Lunbron also faced the same situation, and the spot price remained good. The momentum, although it has been affected by the withdrawal of funds at the end of the year, has little effect on the overall situation. For domestic short positions, the turmoil caused by Lunbron Copper's several major shocks was later lifted and hit harder, so there is still room for growth. (Xu Junbin) Metal Daily Review (Aluminum) 2004-12-27 On Christmas Eve, London's 1900 US Dollar closed on 1929. From a technical point of view, London's aluminum target is 1960-1970 US dollars. In this year's market, Lon Aluminium lags behind London Copper significantly, but its trend is more robust than other metals. We are still watching the high price of base metals in the market. Domestic aluminum increased sharply for the second day in a row. Today's forward contracts touched the daily limit price, and the increase in interest in holding positions reacted to the short-term reaction. The current price differences are more obvious. The market is pessimistic about the export prospects of the aluminum industry next year, and does not look at the room for growth in high aluminum prices. Of course, this also gives more funds to establish enough long positions within the current 500-1000 points. We believe that the high production costs of aluminum ingots have caused some small-scale aluminum producers to lose money. The country's macro-control of the aluminum industry is aimed at allowing small-scale enterprises to gradually be eliminated from the market. However, the increase in aluminum prices led to the rise in the price of spot aluminum, which may in turn rescue heavy-duty companies. It is fundamentally inconsistent with the original market expectations. Therefore, we should remain vigilant for this aluminum rise. From the observation of the Shanghai aluminum market in recent years, the involvement of any peripheral capital can only temporarily affect the market's general expectation. Even if the prices are drastically increased, it will face the pressure from all aluminum manufacturers to put pressure on them. From the current price, The amount of solids on the upside will grow bigger and bigger. Any drop in the red should be the short-term throwing point. We prefer to establish short positions gradually in the upper gear. Of course, we also have such a forecast that some of the funds with serious losses in the market will need to make a beautiful fund table before the end of the year, so they will have more operability in the aluminum market to achieve paper wealth. Last week, the sales volume of aluminum market increased, and the increase in positions was relatively large. The exchange did not publish the position list, which also made the market associative. In short, the contradictory domestic aluminum futures were bearish in the medium term, and the increase was limited to intraday trading under the Masukura condition. Follow the trend, 16800 yuan / ton can be gradually established over the midline short position. (Zhu law) Medium-term futures: Shanghai copper oscillations rose higher on Monday, December 31, 2004 Market sentiment of copper in the international metals market rose slightly after the close of trading in the LME market on Thursday. Shanghai copper opened slightly higher today, followed by oscillations. Quotes. At the close, Shanghai Copper was all up and the main contract rose between 200-330 yuan. One of the more active contracts has been transferred to the March contract to close at 28,720 yuan, up 320 yuan from Friday's close, volatility of 28,450-28,780 yuan, the opening price of 28,450 yuan. A total of 89,000 contracts were traded in various contracts, of which the March contract was 48,000 contracts. Dealers said that LME base metals had shorter trading hours due to Christmas holidays on Friday, so the transaction volume was small, but the base metal prices had risen to varying degrees. Copper for the end of three months closed at $3,094, up $34 from Thursday. COMEX Copper Friday was closed on Christmas Day. Shanghai copper traders believe that although Friday coincided with Christmas, the market was in a downturn, but it did not affect the LME aluminum futures market, and copper continued to rise slightly under its influence. Today, Shanghai Copper has once again launched a major increase, clearly expressing the market's optimism about the sustainability of this wave of compensatory growth. We believe that although aluminum prices have risen sharply in the recent LME period and this smaller period of bullish gains in the bull market is still relatively strong, we have also noticed a sharp fall in the tin phase. This pattern has already shown that this wave of metal bulls is in the middle of a frenzied process. In the short term, as long as aluminum and zinc futures are still in compensatory growth, the price will remain at a higher position, the market will tend to be strong, copper will remain in a state of oscillation, and once the compensatory growth is over, the market will turn quickly. Under investigation. From a technical point of view, LME copper futures once again crossed $3,100 on Friday and closed above $3090. The overall market still shows a pattern of strong oscillations. Although the chart shows that there is a trend of further upward movement of copper prices, the continuous sluggish volume of transactions has made the market's upward momentum not solid. (Ye Ling) Sun Weekly: "Sun Weekly" (One Cycle City Assessment) Week 52, 2004 (2004.12.19~12.25) "Sun Weekly" Research Center for Commodities and Financial Derivatives: From international and domestic multi-year commodities and financial derivatives Traders with experience in the market work, presided over by senior research fellows of the former domestic exchanges; according to the situation, analysts from international leaders and investment banks can also be introduced at any time, and current experts from major domestic exchanges, futures brokers and spot dealers in the country as backups. The main goal of the research center is to be able to provide the market with the most objective judgment criteria. Base metals: Global Review The trend of LME products is different, aluminum and alloys are in a strong trend, and other products are oscillating. Copper: Linquan oscillations increased domestic spot water during the week, but the SHFE and COMEX inventories continued to rise. The futures contracts were far weaker and the main force kept shifting to the back. Volumes on the 5th and MA on the 20th, reflecting the market Contradictions and comprehensive evaluations show signs of weakening. The market outlook weekly recommended fuzzy judgments. Market evaluation: Neutral weakness, less operation. The following figure shows the changes in stocks of the three major exchanges provided by Reuters over the past year. Aluminum: oscillations continue to affect the strength of LME aluminum and Chinalco's control of resources, but the country will soon face a huge increase in new production capacity, and export taxation and other factors are equally important in 2005; also note that a large number of exports in the near future may turn into recessive in stock. Solar Market Evaluation: Neutral Weak, Less Operating. (Yu Guizhen) Jinrui Futures: Shanghai Copper Bulls Main 2004-12-27 16:44:14 Shanghai copper continued to show a strong upward trend today. The main contract CU0503 is trending well and maintains a good upward momentum in the lighter trading. It opened higher at 28450 in early trading, rushed higher at 28,780, and closed at 28,720. Compared with the previous trading day, it gained 440 yuan and the transaction volume was 47,638. Open interest has increased significantly. From the current graph, there will be an upward test of the 28,900 line. However, whether or not this line can be broken and stabilized will depend on whether Shanghai Copper will be able to stand in the context of the copper market and whether the euro can continue to maintain its high position. In the past two days, Shanghai Aluminum has emerged as a new force. With the combination of trading volume and open interest, it has made breakthroughs and, to a certain extent, Shanghai Copper has been driven. In the short-term transaction last Friday, Lonco made a strong overall performance. Under the weakness of the US dollar and the strong US durable goods (durable goods) orders and consumer confidence index, fund buying was dominated by the scramble for speculative selling. The upper hand, to promote the market up. As the current copper is in the Christmas holiday period, the trend of the market outlook is still focused on the dollar exchange rate. Operationally, it is recommended to temporarily rely on a few long positions. (Sun Di)
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