Feed industry: Deductive "Ice and Fire Two Heavens"

The feed industry is currently experiencing a slowdown in growth, with the peak of the boom expected to have passed. This decline is largely driven by the year-on-year reduction in the number of live pigs, which has led to a sluggish performance in feed sales. For example, the growth rate for large-scale production enterprises is projected to remain around 10%, and there could be months with single-digit growth. However, as the base effect takes hold, profit pressure is expected to ease after the first quarter. While the entire year might see low income growth, especially in the second or third quarters, the worst profit performance is likely to occur in the first quarter. Overall, the business climate is not expected to deteriorate further. Currently, the industry is showing a "hot and cold" trend. On one side, small and medium-sized retail investors—often the main customer base—are struggling with weak demand and poor profitability. On the other hand, feed companies targeting large-scale farms with 500 to 10,000 animals are still experiencing rapid growth. These larger clients are expanding quickly, and their stability during downturns highlights their competitive advantage. From our recent visits, we observed that some leading feed companies, such as Dabeinong and Zhengda, have matured in terms of internal systems and talent development. These companies now offer more than just feed—they provide comprehensive services that include products, technical support, information, management, financial solutions, and marketing. These services are measurable and quantifiable, driving competition from cost-cutting toward differentiation. In terms of investment strategy, our analysis suggests that Dabeinong (002385, BUY) has built a strong foundation in serving large customers and holds a clear first-mover advantage in platform development. The company's positive corporate culture and effective talent incentives contribute to maintaining a strong reputation and customer loyalty. Based on our observations, the current momentum with big clients is strong and may help the company sustain growth even during an industry downturn. Short-term volatility is unlikely to change its "buy" rating. For more insights, you can check related articles here: http://ks7chinafeed.com

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