Standard Bank Ratings: Dollar Rebound (12-16)

With the strong rebound of the US dollar, the rebound of the base metals began to shift from noon on the same day as US account data narrowed more than expected. Last week's decline in U.S. unemployment claims was a larger decline in three years, and the labor market showed a strong signal. However, due to the increase in interest rates, housing starts in November were the larger declines in 11 years. Although the base metals fluctuate, but near the end of the year, the market's interest in establishing new positions has weakened. The bulls further closed their positions, but the fundamentals of the base metal remained positive, which would keep the long position stable until 2005. Copper: The year-end factors continued to dominate the market sentiment, and the current short-term liquidation rebound has further developed, followed by long-term profit-taking to reverse the rise. This is consistent with the fact that the dollar has strengthened (because the US account deficit has narrowed) and housing starts have fallen, although the market has a certain amount of bargain-hunting. In the industry, the Chilean government has proposed a concession tax scheme for discussion in the National Assembly. If the concession tax that is charged to the mining company by 5% of operating income is passed, then Chile’s attractiveness to new mining investment will be reduced. Technically, the previous resistance 3055 has been tested, if the price is to test 3175, then the closing needs to be higher than 3055. Support at 3000, 2950, ​​30MA at 3009. Aluminium: The price was consolidated after breaking through 1820, as short positions supported the rise, market confidence was positive, and LME stocks did not increase sharply. According to data from the Aluminum Association of America, new aluminum orders fell by 6.1% in October from October, but rose by 3.9% from the same period last year. So far this year, orders have increased by 11%. Technically, the 1820 becomes a platform, and prices will further test the resistance of 1840-1860.