PV industry depth: single crystal big trend parity big future

Global demand: China and India dominated and emerging. In the past 17 years, the United States and Japan have experienced a slight decline. The proportion of stability in Europe is not high. The growth of China and India has driven global growth. It is expected that China, the United States, India, Japan, Europe and emerging markets will be installed for 40, 12.5, 10, and 7.5 respectively in 17 years. 5, 10GW, 85GW installed worldwide, an increase of 13% compared with 75GW in 16 years. In 18 years, India and emerging markets have risen rapidly. China maintains a high level and distributed over expectations. China, the United States, India, Japan, Europe and emerging markets are expected to install 35, 11, 15, 7, 5.5, 18GW, respectively. Expected 92GW. Industry demand has grown steadily.
Supply scan: capacity transfer, structural replacement of polysilicon, 16 years of China's output of 194,000 tons, global share of 50%, production capacity of 210,000 tons, demand of 290,000 tons. It is estimated that the production capacity at the end of 17th and 18th will be 290,300,000 tons, and import substitution will be completed. The new production capacity of production capacity is lower than 60 yuan / kg, will gradually phase out high-cost production capacity, driving prices to decline steadily. It is estimated that the price of silicon materials in the 18th and 19th years will be 100,000-110,000 yuan/ton, and 80,000 yuan/ton.
Silicon wafers, single crystal pull rods and slicing progressed significantly, and non-silicon costs fell 34% year-on-year in 16 years. Single crystal silicon wafers have been sold at a lower price than polycrystalline ones. And the 17-year gap will be extended to 0.4 yuan / piece (0.14 yuan / W). Even considering the application of Diamond Wire + Black Silicon + PERC technology, the spread is still 0.05 yuan / W. It is estimated that the production capacity of monocrystalline silicon wafers will be 38GW at the end of 17 years, up by 137% year-on-year. The market share is expected to reach 35% in 17 years, up 8 points year-on-year.
Battery, P-type PERC battery has made rapid progress, the average mass production efficiency is close to 21.2%, and single polycrystal is different. The problem of polycrystalline PERC light decay has not been solved. The single crystal PERC battery is expanding rapidly, and the production capacity will reach 20GW by the end of 17th, a year-on-year increase of 50%. The non-silicon cost of the silicon wafer is rapidly decreasing and the technology of the PERC battery is improved. The single polycrystalline gap is gradually widened, and the single crystal is used to speed up.
Components, Jinko shipped 6.7GW in 16 years, rising to the world's first. It is expected to ship 9-10GW in 17 years, and the market share will further increase to around 11%. The pattern of the combination of Jingke, Longji and Hanwha will gradually form, and the market share will gradually concentrate.
Policy Interpretation: Indicator Escort, Driving to Parity: National Energy issued 13th Five-Year Renewable Energy Index, and PV's 17-20-year centralized indicator exceeded expectations. Considering the annual limit of the roof distribution and poverty alleviation village-level power stations, the future PV installation is expected to remain at 35-45GW, which is relatively high. Since the introduction of photovoltaic benchmark electricity prices in 2013, the ground power station has been lowered three times. After 630 this year, the price of electricity in one to three regions fell to 0.65, 0.75, and 0.85 yuan respectively. The distributed self-sufficiency Internet subsidy is 0.42 yuan, the price has not been lowered for three consecutive years, and the yield advantage gradually reflects. In 16 years, the distributed installed capacity has ushered in, and the distributed new installed capacity of 4.24GW in 16 years is 200%, 17 years. In the first half of the year, the new installed capacity was 7.11GW, a year-on-year increase of 290%. National Energy issued the 13th Five-Year Renewable Energy Index, and the 22-20-year centralized indicator of PV exceeded expectations. The front runners plan to 8 GW per year, an increase of 2 GW over 16 years. Unlimited indicators such as rooftop distribution and poverty alleviation village-level power stations, considering the strong demand for micro-distributed installations, will continue to grow at a high rate in the future. The installed capacity of photovoltaics in 17-20 is expected to remain at 35-45GW, a relatively high level.
Future space: cheap Internet access, gradually approaching: according to the construction cost of 6 yuan / W, annual power generation of 1,100 hours, 30% of own funds, interest rate of 6.5%, the average electricity cost of 0.55 yuan / kWh, has been significantly lower than the industrial and commercial average The price of electricity for 0.7-0.8 yuan/kwh (10% discount for developers' electricity charges) has already achieved parity online, while considering the subsidy of 4.2 gross, the profit is quite abundant, which also confirms the distributed outbreak. The household electricity cost of distributed 5-6 cents is close to the residential electricity price (the lowest step price). It is expected that the target of parity will be gradually achieved in the next 1-2 years. The cost of electricity in the first to third types of ground power stations is around 0.45, 0.52, 0.58 yuan/kWh, and there is still a distance from the local 0.25-0.42 yuan/kWh (including tax) thermal power grid benchmark price. The ground photovoltaic power station will be in the future 3 - Within five years, gradually move from the three types of areas to the first-class areas to achieve parity online.