The demand for refined oil will be pushed up by the price of the experts

On February 28, the National Development and Reform Commission released a message saying that according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market, according to the current formation mechanism of refined oil prices, domestic steam and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) from 24:00 on February 28, 2018. The price per ton was reduced by 190 yuan and 185 yuan respectively. The domestic price increase of 92# gasoline and 0# diesel was reduced by 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan respectively, which was the largest retail decline in the past six months. Zhongyong Information Oil Products analyst Zhang Yonghao told the "Securities Daily" reporter yesterday that the current round of pricing coincides with the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, so the time span is long, and the international crude oil futures price is affected by the oversupply pressure at the beginning of the current pricing period. Frustration, the cumulative decline of 9%, shale oil production recovery and the strengthening of the US dollar continued to exert a negative impact on the crude oil market, but the crude oil market turned around in the middle and late February, the Vienna Union's positive attitude in reducing production regained market confidence, US crude oil inventories The rise and fall of the oil market also supported the oil market to pick up, but the recovery in the late session was hard to offset the previous decline. The current round of refined oil price adjustment was still reduced by a large margin, and the Chinese refined oil market recorded two consecutive losses. Zhuo Chuang Information Oil Products Analyst Zheng Mingya said in an interview with Securities Daily yesterday that the price reduction of refined oil products will be the first "two consecutive losses" in the year, and the price reduction of refined oil products will refresh the biggest decline since July 2017. recording. The Lantern Festival is approaching, and private car travel will increase. As the oil price is lowered, the travel costs of car owners will be reduced. From the point of view of fuel consumption, it is calculated by running a 2,000-kilometer month, a small private car with a fuel consumption of 8 km per 100 km, and the private car owner during the period before the next price adjustment window (ie, at 24 o'clock on March 14, 2018). The cost of oil will be reduced by nearly 12 yuan; the cost of diesel fuel for the logistics industry will increase too much, 10,000 kilometers per month, and the fuel consumption of a tank of 100 kilometers per kilometer will be calculated. The fuel for a single vehicle in the next half month will be calculated. The cost will save 304 yuan. Zhuo Ting Information analyst Jia Tingting believes that the demand for gasoline and diesel terminals will gradually change from March to March. After the festival, the mines and infrastructure projects started, and the agricultural spring ploughing oil boosted the demand for diesel terminals to a certain extent, while the increase in tourism began to support the gasoline market. In addition, since March 1, 2018, the national tax No. 1 document will also be formally implemented. There are certain uncertainties in the impact of policy factors on the market, and the players are cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Under the influence of long and short factors, it is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will rise steadily during the next round of pricing, and the price difference between gasoline and diesel will be further narrowed. According to the Zhongyu information detection model, the initial round of the pricing period is expected to increase by 140 yuan / ton, this round of downward adjustment is expected to settle on the first day of the first month, the main unit entering the new sales cycle volume pressure is relatively small. In theory, the new rules for refined oil consumption tax have little impact on the main units, but it does not rule out the rise of the market. With the return of the Spring Festival holiday, domestic diesel demand will gradually recover. Under favorable support, it is expected that the downside of domestic oil prices will be limited, and will closely follow the market news.

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