The Purchasing Managers' Index is expressed as a percentage, often with 50% as the cut-off point for economic strength: when the index is above 50%, it is interpreted as a signal of economic expansion. When the index is below 50%, especially close to 40%, there is a worry of economic depression. It is a very important affiliate pointer in the leading indicators. At present, more than 20 countries around the world have established a PMI system. The PMI index and its business reports have become important indicators for the operation of the world economy and a barometer of changes in the world economy.
Zhao Qinghe, National Bureau of Statistics: PMI continues to fall back due to three factors
Manufacturing PMI fell slightly in January 2015
Non-manufacturing PMI continues to expand
——Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interprets the January 2015 manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI
On February 1, 2015, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Research Center and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician of the Service Industry Research Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, explained.
First, the manufacturing PMI fell slightly
The manufacturing PMI for January was 49.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The reason why PMI continued to fall is that, due to the influence of New Year's Day Spring Festival and seasonal factors, the production and operation activities of manufacturing enterprises have slowed down. In the past 6 years, except for 2012, the PMI of other years in January was down. Secondly, the prices of bulk commodities continued to fall, and the production of related industries was greatly affected. The purchase price index of major raw materials in January was 41.9%, nearly 6 Months fell month by month; third, the domestic and international market demand continued to be weak, and the order growth rate continued to fall.
Although the PMI has declined, the index related to production and market demand is still generally stable. At the same time, there have been some positive changes in the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises. The production index and the new order index were 51.7% and 50.2%, respectively. Although the chain fell slightly, it was still above the line of glory, indicating that production and orders continued to grow. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 49.9% and 46.4%, respectively, up by 1.2 and 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and the contraction rate was narrowed to varying degrees.
2. The non-manufacturing business activity index continues to remain in the expansion zone.
In January 2015, China’s non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.7%. Although it fell slightly by 0.4 percentage points from last month, it is still in a higher economic range, indicating that China’s non-manufacturing industry as a whole maintains a good momentum of development and has a constant effect on stabilizing economic growth. Enhanced.
In January, the service industry business activity index was 52.9%. Although it fell 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, it was still higher than the average of the fourth quarter of last year by 0.1 percentage points. As the Spring Festival approached, the service industry related to household consumption entered the peak season. Among them, retail, telecommunications, Internet software, postal express delivery and other industries reflected that market demand continued to grow steadily and business activities were active.
In January, the construction industry business activity index was 56.9%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and it is still in the higher economic range. With the reform of the infrastructure investment and financing system, the construction of railways, highways and other infrastructures accelerated, and the demand for construction labor increased. The employee index was 53.1%, a sharp increase of 3.6 percentage points from the previous month, but some enterprises stopped working during the Spring Festival. The index may fluctuate in the near term due to reduced production and concentrated employee return.
From the historical data of the purchasing managers' index, there will be some fluctuations in the PMI trend before and after the Spring Festival, and the manufacturing performance is particularly prominent. The manufacturing PMI of this month was weaker than that of the same period of the previous year. The manufacturing industry is facing certain downward pressure, but the non-manufacturing industry, especially the service industry-related activity index, is expanding, and the non-manufacturing industry continues to maintain steady growth.
Bureau of Statistics: China’s official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.8, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
In January 2015, the China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.8%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of scale of enterprises, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.3%, which was 1.1 percentage points lower than that of the previous month. It was still above the critical point and maintained its expansion. The PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 49.9% and 46.4%, respectively, up by 1.2 and 0.9 from last month. The percentage of contraction has narrowed to varying degrees.
From the classification index, among the five sub-indices that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index are above the critical point, and the employee index and the raw material inventory index are below the critical point.
The production index was 51.7%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating that manufacturing production continued to expand, but the pace of expansion has slowed down.
The new order index was 50.2%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and above the critical point, indicating that the growth rate of demand in the manufacturing market declined slightly.
The employee index was 47.9%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and continued to be below the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing industry's employment has decreased.
The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, below the critical point, indicating that the inventory of raw materials for manufacturing production continued to fall.
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