Abstract After a long wait, a series of distributed PV policies with substantial operations entered a critical period. According to the reporter's understanding, since the State Council officially issued the "Suggestions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" on July 15, it has requested to cooperate with the photovoltaic industry...
After a long wait, a series of transparent PV policies with substantial operations entered a critical period of introduction. According to the reporter's understanding, since the State Council officially issued the "Suggestions on Promoting the Healthy Development of the Photovoltaic Industry" on July 15, the ministries and commissions closely related to the development of the photovoltaic industry are required to come up with specific implementation rules in the short term. As of today, the Ministry of Finance, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Energy Bureau, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have completed the work on the development of photovoltaic distributed rules. It is reported that key policies such as PV distributed subsidy price, CDB financial support policy, benchmark resource prices in four types of resources, tax rebates related to the State Administration of Taxation and land nature issues will be introduced at the end of this month.
Scale development
The current form of utilization of photovoltaic power generation is mainly based on distributed generation systems. International distributed photovoltaic power generation systems account for about 67% of photovoltaic power generation, and distributed photovoltaic power generation in developed countries such as Germany, the United States, and Japan account for more than 80%, compared with China's distributed photovoltaic applications. The ratio is lower. According to data released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, as of 2012, China's photovoltaic power generation has a cumulative capacity of 7.97GW, including 4.19GW for large-scale photovoltaic power plants, 3.78GW for distributed photovoltaic power generation systems, and a distributed power generation ratio of approximately 47%. It should be pointed out that the 47% of the proportion also covers the total installed capacity of the previous “Golden Sun†demonstration project, which is also different from the form of foreign PV distributed utilization. However, the country has begun to accelerate its pace in the near future, and a series of actions are intended to break the current situation of domestic distributed PV applications lag.
On August 15, it was reported that the National Energy Administration announced the list of projects in the distributed photovoltaic demonstration zone of “7 provinces and 7 citiesâ€, and intended to open the domestic distributed application market in a large-scale manner. A total of 18 PV application demonstration projects were approved, including Beijing Haidian and Shunyi; Tianjin Wuqing; Hebei Gaobeidian; Baoding Yingli Industrial Park; Shandong Tai'an High-tech Zone; Zibo High-tech Zone; Jiangsu Wuxi and Nantong; Anhui Hefei; Sanshui Industrial Park project.
Wang Haisheng, chief analyst of Minsheng Securities New Energy, said in an interview: "In the approved provinces and cities, there are 1-2 projects in each province and city, mainly in the province of photovoltaic development and higher electricity prices for industrial and commercial use. In the southeastern coastal areas, the local industrial and commercial electricity prices are concentrated at 0.9 yuan / kWh - 1.3 yuan / kWh, plus the country's 0.42 yuan / kW subsidy expectations, with obvious economic benefits." At the same time, he pointed out that The first batch of distributed demonstration projects will likely enjoy preferential financial subsidies and smaller grid-connected resistance.
"Five big four small" continue to wait and see
From the perspective of development prospects, although the potential of distributed photovoltaic power generation is huge in the future, due to its own “small and scattered†characteristics, and lack of effective and mature cooperation modes and objectively existing grid-connected bottlenecks, some industry experts have expressed Only relying on the subsidy of 0.42 yuan / kW, it is still difficult to fully open the domestic distributed photovoltaic application market.
"This is also the main reason why the Energy Bureau has chosen to scale up and market-oriented to promote distributed photovoltaic power generation." Wang Haisheng said, "Scale can achieve unified reporting and unified management, and can also improve follow-up support, identification, and tracking of regulatory efficiency. In the future, the Energy Bureau will only directly connect with the Development Zone Management Committee to reduce management costs."
As the main force of photovoltaic power station development, the “five big four small†power companies have obviously not expressed their sincere enthusiasm for distributed photovoltaic power generation. At present, although China Power Investment Yellow River Hydropower has “small trials†in the field of distributed photovoltaics, it has built the company's first distributed solar photovoltaic power station in Xi'an, but its scale is only 990 kW, and the scale of large-scale ground power plants with hundreds of megawatts Not the same day.
According to the reporter's observation, the installation targets of 10GW and 35GW will be completed during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period this year, and large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations will still occupy a large proportion. The subsidy standard of 1 yuan/kWh for large-scale photovoltaic power plants is still very attractive. In the future, the “Five Big Four Small†power companies will continue to focus on the development of new energy fields, and will accelerate the enclave and development speed, and will continue to “wait and see†for the distributed PV market. This is also evident from the competition of several major power companies for the 1GW “road strip†of Qinghai's 2013 large-scale photovoltaic power station. According to the newly established “Qinghai Solar Power Industry Association†data in Qinghai Province, there are currently 41 member companies in the association, and many PV companies are still continuing to apply. This year's 1GW installed capacity of “road strips†in Qinghai Province will balance the interests of these enterprises. At present, some large power companies have gained a lot. Among them, CLP's Yellow River hydropower company seized 320 MW of project development rights, and CGNPC acquired about 100 MW of project development rights. Dozens of other companies will divide the remaining share, and the scale will be 20 MW to 30 MW.
The market is long before the start of the market
On the one hand, it is the push of national policy, and on the other hand, it is the specific difficulty in implementation. It still takes time for the domestic distributed market to “break the bureauâ€. Among them, the initial financing of the project, the lack of cooperation mode for power station development, and the scarcity of roof resources are all the first issues that need to be faced in the start of the distributed PV market.
A person in charge of electric power said in an interview with reporters: "The scale of distributed projects is small and scattered, but the investment risk is very large. At the same time, enterprises need to spend a lot of manpower and material resources on finding projects, and they will face the grid after the completion of the power station. Communication problems, these resistances are enough to make the companies involved in the construction of distributed photovoltaic power plants discouraged."
Wang Sicheng, a researcher at the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview: "Before the distributed start-up, the industrial and commercial roofs have been screened for four rounds of 'Golden Sun' demonstration projects, and the roofs suitable for installing PV power plants are rare. The newly built industrial and commercial plants are mostly colored steel plates. The installation of photovoltaic modules must be carried out on the roof."
Han Qiming, senior analyst of SOLARBUZZ New Energy, said: "According to the current price, the cost of photovoltaic system is about 8 yuan / watt. If the cost of transforming the roof is involved, the installation cost of the system will increase to 9 yuan - 10 yuan / watt."
The cost of roof renovation is high, and financing, cooperation mode, and grid connection are more urgent problems. Some companies complained to reporters: "Now, even if the distributed PV project has a subsidy of 0.42 yuan / kWh, the bank still believes that the risk is too large and refuses to lend. Investing in a distributed photovoltaic project requires a development of hundreds of millions of enterprises. The 100% start-up fund of 10 billion is unrealistic in itself."
“The subsidy of 0.42 yuan/kWh is also not enough to support the evaluation of bank loans. The lack of a mature cooperation model is also one of the main reasons.†The above-mentioned power enterprise personnel said that “8%-9% of the investment yield is the enterprise. Acceptable, but only if there is no risk. Now the inter-enterprise cooperation mostly adopts the contract energy management mode. Once the electricity owner collapses or the grid connection is not smooth, the investors will be caught in huge investment risks."
At present, the contract energy management model is extremely immature in China and the risks are relatively large. Wang Sicheng also repeatedly said: "Do not use contract energy management mode in China. There are too many disputes and the problems are too complicated."
In addition, surfing the Internet is another major issue. Although the State Grid has repeatedly expressed its support for distributed grid connection. However, for the current development of new development zones and new community projects, the construction of microgrid is undoubtedly the best choice in one step. However, whether the microgrid is legal and whether it adds energy storage equipment has not been clearly stated by the government.
"This year China's distributed accounted for 47%, far lower than the European proportion, but will exceed 60% next year. The current distributed photovoltaic power station 'breaking' resistance is numerous, but the prospects are bright and broad." Wang Haisheng said.
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