The future layout of the photovoltaic market will undergo a big conversion

Before the "6 ̇ 30" rushed to install, the industry worried that after the end of the rush to install the tide, the "6 ̇ 30" market weakened. However, since the end of "6 ̇ 30" this year, the PV market has not been as pessimistic as expected, downstream demand is still growing, and polysilicon supply is tight. A good situation gives the industry a reassurance. However, the continuous reduction of the remaining amount of planning indicators, the US "201" survey and India's double-reverse, bring hidden concerns for the future development of China's photovoltaic industry. In the case of internal and external troubles, what changes will the domestic PV market have?
Recently, Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, analyzed the current status of China's PV market and its prospects for the future.

The global PV market is booming Globally, the PV market is booming and driving in the fast lane. In 2016, 75 GW was added, with a growth rate of over 41%. Our number is 73GW, and the number of CPIA is more than 303GW. For the first time last year, photovoltaics became the largest new renewable energy source installed.

The market shifts from Europe to Asia. In terms of market structure, the PV market in the past was mainly in Europe and in Germany. This pattern has changed a lot now. The Asian market has deservedly become the world's largest market last year, and the new market accounts for two-thirds. Very big changes, mainly China, Japan, and India. The European market has shrunk to only 9%, and the cumulative volume is relatively large, exceeding 30%. The market has blossomed in full, with more than 1GW installed in 24 countries and more than 10MW installed in 114 countries. Therefore, the development of the entire world market is relatively good, and will continue to continue this year and next year.

China's potential is huge In terms of power generation, global photovoltaic power generation accounted for 1.35%, compared with 1.3% last year and an increase of 0.2 percentage points a year. China lags behind the average, so China has great potential.

Achievements in China's photovoltaic industry The domestic PV market is very strong. After falling into a trough in 2012, it will pick up in the second half of 2013, and 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017 continue the rapid development. Judging from the figures in the first half of this year, a series of historical highs were born. First, from the installed data of half a year, it reached 24.4GW in half a year, and 15GW in the previous year. Distributed PV grew by 2.9 times year-on-year, 7.11 GW, which is another historical record. June is the highest level in China's PV development history in a single month. A series of historical highs have been born, and the Chinese market is booming.
There are several points worth pointing out in the rapid development of the Chinese market. One is the amount of electricity generated, although it is less than the world average, only 1%, but it is growing rapidly. Last year, more than 60 billion kWh, and now more than 50 billion in half a year, an increase of 75%, this rate is very fast. In addition, the abandonment of light is still a big problem, but the good news is that the light rejection rate has dropped by 4.5 percentage points, which is commendable. There is also a clear trend of shifting to the east, especially in Suzhou, where the installed capacity exceeds 2 GW in half a year, which is very rare.

Continued growth in output The photovoltaic industry has become one of the few industries in China that can participate in international competition simultaneously, at the same starting line as the world's advanced level. Such an industry cannot be said to be unique, but it is also very rare. In just over a decade, China's photovoltaic industry has been the world's number one component in output for ten consecutive years, ranking first in the global photovoltaic market for four consecutive years. Internationally, the lowest polysilicon wafers and cell modules in China are above 47%. In addition, the number of the top ten manufacturing companies, the top ten silicon wafer manufacturing companies are all in China, this number does not include Taiwan. Such industries are very rare in China.
In the first half of this year, the output of polysilicon was 115,000 tons, up 21.1% year-on-year. It is expected to reach 220,000 tons this year. The output of silicon wafers is more than 36 GW, which is more than 20% year-on-year. It is expected that the production of wafers will reach 68 GW or more this year, compared with 64.8 GW last year. The battery was 32GW in the first half of the year, up 28% year-on-year. It is expected to reach 60GW this year. Last year, it was only 51GW, a rapid increase. The component is 34GW, an increase of 25.9%. It is expected to reach 65GW this year, and last year the component was 57.7GW.

Export volume has increased sharply In the first half of this year, total exports have fallen, probably by 11.5%, but exports are growing, and the range is very high, close to 40% high and 15% lower. The reason for the decline in exports is that prices are falling, and the decline is relatively fast, otherwise there will not be such a large percentage gap. Polysilicon was flat with last year's imports. From January to May, the import volume was slightly reduced, but in June, the import volume exceeded 14,000 tons.
In the export layout, for example, the more mature markets such as Japan, the United States, and Europe, especially the US and European markets, have a relatively large decline. At the same time, some emerging markets have grown rapidly, including India, Brazil, and Mexico. Among them, India has a relatively large volume and a relatively fast growth. Brazil and Mexico have grown rapidly, but their volume is not large.
In terms of production capacity, the pace of China's PV going out is accelerating. In the first half of this year, this phenomenon was continued. About 16 companies have built battery and component factories abroad, with a capacity of more than 6GW.

Domestic layout optimization At the same time, the domestic layout is optimized. After several years of development, a large pattern has been formed. The relatively large industries, such as silicon materials, are basically distributed in areas with relatively abundant resources in the northwest, including areas where electricity prices are relatively cheap in Sichuan and Yunnan, but silicon wafers, batteries, components and other supporting links are still mainly Concentrated in the eastern region.
The output of thin-film solar cells is relatively small, and the production capacity is gradually forming. Both cadmium telluride and copper-indium-selenium are growing. In the first half of this year, including last year's output, thin-film solar cells accounted for a small part, and more than 95% to 98% were crystalline silicon cells, but these are all in the layout and formation. It will be released in the second half of the year and later next year.

Technological progress has accelerated the pace of technological advancement, and the pace has accelerated. In particular, Chinese companies have already appeared in the United States, and technological progress has been made. At the same time as the advancement of cutting-edge technology, the pace of industrialization of some advanced technologies has accelerated, mainly PERC and black silicon battery technology. Nowadays, new investment in the field of battery cells is basically laying out high-efficiency batteries.
The layout of production capacity is expanding globally, and the domestic layout is different. According to the characteristics of each link, it is divided into northwest, southwest and central and eastern regions. In addition, while capacity growth, it has changed the blind growth of homogenization in the past, and new growth and expansion are the industrialization of high-efficiency batteries. Everyone can pay attention to the news, and the efficiency of high-efficiency batteries is constantly improving, and it has been refreshed many times in a year.

In terms of rapid price declines , both component prices and system prices have fallen very quickly. From 2007 to 2016, the price dropped by 90%, which is a very remarkable number. In the two years from 2015 to 2017, prices have still fallen by 25%, and the speed is still very fast.
Photovoltaic power generation has initially become economical and is lower than traditional energy costs in many parts of the world. It has been evaluated online or low-cost Internet. But why is China's price higher? This involves non-technical costs, including financing costs, land costs, and grid-connected costs. Once these issues are resolved, the price decline is quite room-consuming.

The market layout and structure of the large-scale conversion PV market has seen a big shift in market layout and structure, which is very obvious in the first half of this year. First of all, from the perspective of market conversion, 95% of the market was abroad, but the domestic market was very high in the first half of this year. In addition, emerging markets abroad are also rising rapidly. Therefore, there has been a big market transformation. From the traditional European market in the past, accounting for more than 80% of the overseas market, 95% of exports, and more than 50% of the Asian market, especially the Chinese market, is very large.
In addition, the layout has changed a lot. In the past, 80% of the large-scale ground power stations in the northwestern region have been distributed mainly in the central and eastern regions. Not only the construction of centralized photovoltaic power plants has rapidly migrated from the northwest to the central and eastern regions, but also the construction of centralized photovoltaic power plants in the first half of the year. Exceeding 50% of the total, the market structure in China has undergone a very big change.
In terms of the structure of the market, in the past, ground power stations were the mainstay, but the speed of distributed propulsion in the first half of this year is accelerating. The proportion of new installed capacity accounted for only about 10% in the first half of last year, and this year's proportion is close to 30%, so the market layout and structure are changing.

The market is diversified In addition, the trend of diversification appears. In addition to the more ground power stations in the past, distributed is now developing. The distribution has just set off a climax, and household PV has a sudden rise. Nowadays, a lot of news is about household PV. Jiaxing's increase in the first half of this year has exceeded the previous accumulation, and the change is very fast. This change is not limited to Jiaxing. Mobike bicycles are also using photovoltaic cells, which is pushing the development of battery applications.
The photovoltaic market should be three major aspects: one is a ground-based photovoltaic power station; the other is distributed photovoltaic power generation; and then there are photovoltaic cells that can enter thousands of households and even enter consumer products in Gome, Suning, and IKEA markets. . There are also photovoltaic tents, photovoltaic backpacks, photovoltaic chargers, etc., which are popularized step by step. Imagine this amount. If one person is one watt, it will be 1.3 billion watts in the future. This amount is not small.

The photovoltaic industry is heading towards the development of the photovoltaic industry in the future . After more than a decade, it has achieved many achievements. What about the future?

The photovoltaic industry is "strategic" and "positive"
First of all, it should be considered that in recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been growing beyond expectations, which is unexpected. According to the analysis and the judgment of the international climate, looking at the current trend of photovoltaics, we must not only look at short-term development, but also the potential of the entire photovoltaic market. The potential of the photovoltaic market is huge, and certainly no problem.
The photovoltaic industry has both strategic and positive characteristics. The strategy is that all countries are developing and want to occupy the highlands, especially the developed countries. The United States and the European Union are both anti-reverse. Now India has to do its own industry, fearing that it will be taken away at the high end. In addition, looking at its positive, the photovoltaic industry is in the development stage, the cost is rapidly decreasing, and the market prospect is huge. More than 100 national PV markets are developing, one after another. On the other hand, the rapid decline in costs provides a possibility for the market. Now that the international market is decentralized, unlike in the past, only Europe was analyzed, and Europe only analyzed Germany. Now it is full bloom, one appears, and it is quickly occupied by others. This is the whole development trend.
At the same time, China's photovoltaic industry has already possessed strong international competitiveness. China's PV industry has scale, economy, supporting, learning, artificial quality, cost-effective advantages, etc., and this advantage will be maintained for a long time.
The ability to have a market is the future of the domestic PV industry.

The domestic market is better than expected in the global market. Some research institutions have analyzed and predicted that they are relatively optimistic. In the domestic market, the industry was more pessimistic a week ago. I think that there are so many installed machines in the first half of the year. What should I do in the second half? Now that the indicators come out, the domestic market has changed and is better than expected. The photovoltaic market cannot only consider growth rate, and the growth rate cannot be so fast, because the volume and technology will become larger and larger. Basic market support is there, but it cannot be developed and built blindly.

The market is worried about external troubles. At present, international trade is under great pressure. At present, there are 201 and India double-reverse, and this time is more severe than before. This time is not limited to China, the whole world is like this. In other words, it is very likely that Chinese companies will be included in the construction of evasive double-country overseas. The products built in India cannot be exported. Now it is a foot high, and the height is one foot.
There are also many domestic problems, such as land use issues. It is understood that the Ministry of Land, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Energy Bureau, and the Poverty Alleviation Office are preparing new documents, and the documents issued are likely to be good for photovoltaics. I look forward to the policy support as soon as possible.
In addition, the competition for technological advancement is further increasing. The leader's indicator has been raised and jumped a step. Frontier bases, higher level documents are under discussion. Therefore, the photovoltaic industry is a step by step, this is the general trend of the future, there is no other way. The situation is developing, and the requirements are constantly improving. To survive in the long run, it is necessary to seize an idea--continuous technological innovation.

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