Elimination of backward steel production capacity has a limited boost to the steel market

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The second session of the 12th National People's Congress opened in the Great Hall of the People on the morning of the 5th. Premier Li Keqiang reported on the government work on behalf of the new Central Government. When talking about the adjustment of industrial structure, the Prime Minister said that it must rely on reform and advance and retreat simultaneously. In particular, when it comes to retreat, it is more proactive and orderly. Adhere to the survival of the fittest through market competition and encourage mergers and acquisitions. For industries with severe overcapacity, strengthen environmental protection, energy consumption, technology and other standards, clean up various preferential policies, digest a batch of stocks, and strictly control new increments. This year, we will eliminate 27 million tons of steel, 42 million tons of cement, 35 million standard containers of flat glass, and other backward production capacity to ensure that the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" elimination task will be completed one year ahead of schedule, and will truly be suppressed and will never rebound.

The central government has proposed to phase out 27 million tons of backward production capacity this year. This work will have a certain impact on this year's market. Its specific impact can be divided into the following aspects,

First, the impact of absolute quantity. The 27 million tons of backward production capacity is still a relatively small figure compared with the current domestic production capacity of at least 1 billion tons. Moreover, the 27 million tons capacity is the sum of the production capacity of iron and steel, and what our country now has. The production capacity of iron making and steel making is more than 1 billion tons, and the production capacity of ironmaking and steelmaking has been eliminated by more than 10 million tons respectively. The impact on China's actual production capacity is very limited.

Second, the capacity that can be eliminated this year is not much. At the end of February and the beginning of March, several provinces have announced that they have completed the task of eliminating backward production capacity during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. Wang Chang, the director of the Environmental Protection Department of the first province, said during the two sessions that “the country’s 2014 is completed ahead of schedule. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the task of eliminating backward production capacity was completed in Hebei at the end of last year. In addition, Jiangsu Province also recently announced that it will complete the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” phase-out of production capacity two years ahead of the end of 2013. The task is to eliminate 2.1 million tons of backward and low-end capacity ironmaking, 600,000 tons of coke and 12,000 tons of ferroalloy in Jiangsu Province in 2013. The author estimates that the 27 million tons of backward production capacity mentioned in the Prime Minister's government report should include Hebei and Jiangsu, which have already been phased out in advance, so that the equipment capacity that will be phased out and shut down this year is even smaller than 27 million tons.

Judging from the absolute amount of backward production capacity that needs to be eliminated and the amount that needs to be completed this year, the impact on actual production this year should be negligible.

Third, the central government’s determination to eliminate backward production capacity and control smog has a positive impact on the market. The Prime Minister’s work report mentioned that for the production capacity of overcapacity industries, it is necessary to: “Really press down and never rebound.” Such a tough stance is still relatively rare. In addition, the Prime Minister spoke of "trying to build a beautiful homeland for ecological civilization". This is to say, "The construction of ecological civilization is related to the people's life and the future of the nation. The scope of the smog is widening, and the contradiction of environmental pollution is prominent. It is the way for nature to develop in an extensive way. The red light must be strengthened. It is necessary to strengthen the ecological environment protection, and resolve to use hard measures to complete the hard task. Heavy punches to strengthen pollution prevention and control. Focus on mega-mass and regions with frequent fog, fine particles (PM2.5) and Inhaled particulate matter (PM10) treatment is a breakthrough, grasping key links such as industrial structure, energy efficiency, exhaust emissions and dust, and improving the government, enterprises, and the public to participate in the new mechanism, implementing joint prevention and control, and implementing the air pollution prevention action plan in depth. "Iron making steel and steel rolling is a major cause of air pollution and haze. The national air pollution prevention action plan, air pollution control action plans of various regions, provinces and cities, including regional linkage plans have been introduced. This year will be able to It is implemented at any time, which will largely affect the release of production capacity this year and the growth of the affected output.

After the work report of the Prime Minister’s government today, the domestic stock market remained weak. The GDP growth target of around 7.5% for the whole year was not unexpected. The growth target for the three years was not enhanced. However, rebar futures rebounded in the afternoon, which is closely related to the Prime Minister’s proposal to eliminate 27 million tons of backward production capacity this year. At least at the confidence level, the market has formed a certain pulling effect. After entering March, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the sales volume of steel products has increased. Tangshan billet, profiles, strip and welded pipe prices, and the spot price of spirals in Beijing and Tianjin have rebounded, and today’s futures prices are expected to rise. Recently, domestic spot and futures prices are still likely to rise slightly.

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