Market mentality actively stabilizes small fluctuations in steel prices

Affected by the intensive development of large-scale infrastructure projects by the National Development and Reform Commission, the domestic steel market has experienced rapid growth. However, due to the ongoing strengthening of the steel cost support and the positive market sentiment, the domestic steel market will enter a concussive pattern. It is expected that the overall domestic steel market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center weekly price forecast model data, this week (2012.12.31-2013.1.4) domestic steel market prices will fluctuate slightly, the long products market will stably fluctuate slightly, while the plate market price will be stable rise. The Lange Steel Composite Index is expected to fluctuate around 149.2 points, the average price of steel is around 3880 yuan, and the average volatility is around 30 yuan; Lange Steel's long product index is expected to fluctuate around 162.5; Lange Steel's price index is expected to Fluctuations around 133.3 points, a slight increase of around 0.3 points.

From the market research of Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the domestic long product market price will fluctuate steadily or slightly during this week (2012.12.31-2013.1.4), while the plate market price will increase steadily or slightly; the raw material market price will stabilize. Rising slightly, iron ore market prices will rise slightly by 10 yuan, coke market prices will rise slightly by 10-20 yuan, the scrap market prices will remain stable, billet market prices will rise slightly by 50 yuan.

1. Domestic steel market increased slightly this week. Week 52, 2012 (12.24-12.28) The Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 149.1 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.51% and a decrease of 12.17% from the same period of last year. The LGMI long products price index was 162.5 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.37%, and a decrease of 15.90% from the same period of last year. The LGMI sheet price index was 133 points, a week-on-month increase of 0.70% and a decrease of 6.05% from the same period of last year (see Figure 1 for details). .

According to the price data of 17 categories of 44 specifications in some regions monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center market, the market price of major steel products increased slightly in the 52nd week of 2012 (12.24-12.28), compared with last week, the increase in prices. A slight increase, stable varieties remained stable, and declines slightly decreased. Thirty-three varieties rose, five more than last week; seven were flat, unchanged from last week; four varieties fell, five fewer than last week. The domestic steel raw material market price rose slightly, the iron ore market price rose by 20-30 yuan, the coke market price rose steadily by 10-20 yuan, the scrap market price rose by 50 yuan, and the billet market price rose by 30 yuan.

2. This week, the country's steel stocks rebounded moderately. At present, the nation's steel inventories have risen moderately, among which building materials stockpiles have risen from rising to low, and sheet stocks have declined at a slightly faster rate. According to market monitoring by Lange Steel Information Research Center, on December 28, steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country amounted to 11.7694 million tons, which was an increase of 19,900 tons from the previous week. From the point of view of the sub-variety, the country’s social inventory of wire rods was 1,078,800 tons, up 0.82% from the previous week; the rebar social inventory was 4,618,500 tons, up 1.73% from last week; the social inventory of coiled screw was 314,300 tons. This was an increase of 3.39% from the previous week; the social volume of hot-rolled coils was 2,951,700 tons, down 1.82% from the previous week; the volume of cold-rolled coils society was 1,521,600 tons, down 0.04% from last week; the plate's social inventory The amount was 1,285,300 tons, down 1.71% from the previous week.

3. Steel ** market turmoil this week Up 52 weeks of 2012 (12.24-12.28) The rebar market oscillating up, this week's weekly closing price rose 123 points last week, rising for four consecutive weeks, the price one step at a time Step up. This week, the main contract was 1.161 million lots, which was a decrease of 192,000 lots. The two-week increase in lightening was accompanied by price increase. Of course, this week's sharply lightening up was also inextricably linked to the customary outflow of funds for the New Year holidays, but the upswing was up for the price. Sustainability has caused some concern.

4. Concern about the recent factors affecting steel prices Macroeconomics:

The National Development and Reform Commission announced five more approved infrastructure projects. The National Development and Reform Commission again announced five approved infrastructure projects on the 24th. Among them, Changsha City's urban rail transit construction project has a total investment of 63.695 billion yuan. The capital of the project is 28.365 billion yuan, which is settled by the Changsha Municipal Government's financial funds. Funds other than capital funds are to be settled by means of domestic banks. It is estimated that by 2018, the second phase of the West Extension of Line 2 will be completed, the first line of Line 3, the first line of Line 4 and the first line of Line 5 will be approximately 96.3 kilometers long, forming a “Rice-shaped frame and double cross. Expand the main skeleton of the rail transit network. The other four projects are the berths No. 5 and No. 6 in the Shihu Lake Operation Area in Quanzhou, Fujian Province, the Gongshan Highway to be completed in Yunnan Province, the reconstruction and expansion project of Huize Highway in Zhaotong, Yunnan Province, and the Yesheng Yellow River Highway Bridge in Ningxia Autonomous Region. Among them, the Fujian Quanzhou Port project is planned to build two 100,000-ton container berths and corresponding supporting facilities. The length of the terminal is 850 meters, and the designed annual capacity is 1.2 million TEUs. The project to be completed in Yunnan for the Gongshan Highway starts from the town of Hubu in Huize County and ends at Gongshan Town in Xundian County. The total length is about 70 kilometers. The Zhaotong-Huize Highway project in Yunnan Province is from Zhaotong Ludian Interchange and ends at Huize Interchange. The total length is approximately 106 kilometers. The Ningxia Yellow River Highway Bridge starts from Yesheng West in Qingtongxia City and crosses the Yellow River near Tangtan Village and ends at Lingwu Farm. It is about 10.3 kilometers in length.

Ministry of Housing and Housing: Next year will continue to implement strict housing purchase measures The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said on the 25th that next year it will continue to strictly implement differentiated housing credits, taxation policies, and purchase restriction measures, resolutely curb speculative investment housing demand, support reasonable self-occupation and improve demand. Continue to promote the construction of urban individual housing information systems. On the 25th, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said that the tasks for the construction of affordable housing for urban residents next year will be to build 4.6 million units of basic housing, start 6 million new projects, and complete reconstruction of 3 million rural dilapidated houses.

Profit from industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3% year-on-year in November

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November, the national industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a profit of 4,662.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In November, the net profit reached 638.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.8%.

Of the 41 industrial categories, 30 industries saw a year-on-year increase in profits, 10 industries decreased year-on-year, and one industry continued to lose money. Profit growth of major industries: profits of oil and natural gas extraction industry increased by 0.5% year-on-year, agricultural and non-staple food processing industry increased by 16.6%, general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 1.6%, automobile manufacturing industry increased by 7.4%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing increased by 6.1% , Computers, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 11.5%, electricity and heat production and supply increased by 62.9%, chemical materials and chemical manufacturing fell by 10.1%, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry decreased by 47.9%, oil processing, Coking and nuclear fuel processing industry losses increased 4.1 times year-on-year.

Industry News:

WISCO's sales revenue exceeded RMB 200 billion in 2012 and realized RMB 1.7 billion in profits. It came from the Wuhan Iron and Steel Group on the 24th. The Group expects to realize sales revenue of RMB 200 billion and profit of RMB 1.7 billion this year. In the previous year, WISCO's sales were 218 billion yuan and profit was 6.4 billion yuan. According to statistics from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first 10 months of this year, China’s key large and medium-sized steel companies suffered operating losses for a period of six months, and other months had less than 1% of profit. The average sales profit rate of key large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises in China in the previous October was -0.18%, with an accumulated loss of 5.2 billion yuan. This year's industry-wide loss is a foregone conclusion. WISCO has expanded its market with high-end products. Auto panels have been supplied for the first time to Shanghai Volkswagen Automotive OEMs, and bridge steel and other products have won bids for major projects such as the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and Shenshen Coal Slurry Pipeline. The new test and new product pushes 4.71 million tons, and 11 unique varieties fill the gap in the country. The non-steel industry is an important support for Wuhan Iron and Steel Corp. to withstand the cold winter. It is expected that this year Wugang's non-steel industry will realize a profit of 3 billion yuan, an increase of 32% year-on-year. Among them, the external profit of the iron and steel logistics company of Wuhan Iron and Steel Company increased by 209% year-on-year. The oxygen company successfully won the bid for the 800,000-ton ethylene engineering oxygen project of Wuhan, and the products of Refractory Materials entered the international high-end market.

U.S. Anti-dumping Administrative Review of China's Oil Pipeline Final Judgment On December 17, 2012, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement to make the first anti-dumping administrative review final ruling on petroleum pipes originating in China and ruled Jiangsu Chengde Steel Tube Co., Ltd. The dumping margin of Taizhou Chengde Steel Pipe Co., Ltd. and Yangzhou Chengde Light Pipe Co., Ltd. was 172.54%. On November 17, 2009, the U.S. Department of Commerce made a preliminary ruling. On April 19, 2010, the US Department of Commerce made an anti-dumping final ruling ranging from 29.94% to 99.14%. The US Customs and Border Protection Bureau imposed a cash margin rate of 29.86% to 99.14% on the products involved. On June 28, 2011, the US Department of Commerce conducted the first anti-dumping administrative review of the case.

Average daily output of crude steel in the country fell 1.75% in mid-December

According to the latest data from the China Iron and Steel Association, the average daily output of crude steel for major and medium-sized enterprises in mid-December 2012 was 1,623,300 tons, down by 2.03% compared to the previous period; the average daily crude steel production in mid-December was estimated to be 1,910,900 tons. Decline by 1.75% over the last ten days.

The previous session of the thread ** rise on the 28th main contract rose 0.46%

The rebar main 1305 contract was opened at RMB 3,870/ton in the morning on the 28th, and then the price showed a low-going, high-going, uptrend, uptrend for the whole day. It was RMB 3,869/t for the whole day and RMB 3,916/t for the whole day, closing at RMB 3,916/ Compared with the previous trading day (Thursday 27), the settlement price rose by RMB 18/ton, with 1,984,868 transactions, and 1,161,322 positions, a decrease of 17,394 contracts.

Downstream demand:

From January to November, the growth rate of machinery industry production and sales continued to decline year-on-year. According to statistics from China Machine Group, from January to November, the total output value of the machinery industry was 166.285 billion yuan, an increase of 12.20% year-on-year; and the industrial sales value was 1,624.646 billion yuan. , an increase of 12.04% over the same period last year. From January to November, the sales ratio was 97.68%.

From January to November, among the 120 main products in the machinery industry, there are three categories of products with an increase rate of more than 100%: corn harvesting machinery (113.79%), gas turbines (169.34%), and automobile 2.5 liters <displacement ≤ 3.0 liters ( 210.06%); among them, the output growth rate of the feed-producing equipment, transformers, hydraulic components, etc., fell sharply, and the growth rate decreased by 54.69, 60.82, and 66.37 percentage points year-on-year.