Since the reform and opening up, the rapid development of China's energy industry has effectively supported economic and social development. However, in this process, some contradictions and problems have also gradually accumulated and have been exposed and highlighted in recent years. With the sustained and rapid growth in the demand for energy and electricity, the domestic coal, electricity, oil, gas and transportation tensions have been recurring. The ecological and environmental protection situation has become increasingly severe, and the pressure to cope with climate change is increasing. It is necessary to accelerate the adjustment of energy structure. At the same time, the new round of energy technology revolution, marked by new energy and smart grids, continues to breed, and the development of energy and power is undergoing profound changes. Therefore, the power proposed at this stage is centered, and its connotation and significance are very different.
Accelerate the strategic adjustment of energy structure. Power generation is an important direction for primary energy to achieve clean transformation and utilization.
Coal is mainly used for power generation and its proportion gradually increases. To protect our energy supply, we must base ourselves on the national conditions. From the viewpoint of resource endowment, coal will be the basic energy source of our country for a long time to come. From the perspective of utilization, power generation is the most important method for coal utilization. It has the outstanding advantages of high utilization efficiency and easy centralized control of pollution. Continuously increasing the proportion of coal used for power generation is an inevitable trend of clean and efficient use of coal. In 2011, the proportion of coal used for power generation in China accounted for about 53% of the total coal consumption, and the average level in the world during the same period was 65%. The proportion of electric coal in developed countries such as the United States reached over 80% and even exceeded 90%. The proportion of coal for power generation in China is obviously low, and there is still room for improvement in the future. Accelerate the adjustment of the coal consumption structure, and by 2020, the proportion of China’s coal for power generation in coal consumption is expected to reach 63%.
Gas-fired power generation is a reasonable choice for accelerating the development and efficient use of natural gas. Natural gas is relatively clean fossil energy. At present, about one-fifth of China's natural gas is converted into electricity. In the future, with the breakthrough of unconventional natural gas such as natural gas exploration and development, shale gas, and the acceleration of overseas introduction, the natural gas supply capacity will increase substantially, and the proportion of China's primary energy consumption structure will gradually increase. As an important part of natural gas consumption, the appropriate development of natural gas power generation and distributed energy systems will help improve the power supply structure and energy structure. In the future, China will give priority to the development of natural gas power generation instead of receiving coal-fired power generation projects, and the proportion of installed gas will gradually increase, from approximately 3% in 2010 to 6% in 2020 and 8% in 2030. Generation gas accounts for natural gas supply. The proportion will also rise to about 1/4.
Electricity is the most important way for the development and utilization of non-fossil energy. In addition to a small part of non-fossil energy used for direct heating, gas production, and fuel production, its terminal utilization is mainly achieved through power generation. The proportion of non-fossil energy used in power generation in major developed countries exceeds 80%. In the next 10 years, China's hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and other non-fossil fuels will usher in a period of rapid development. The installed capacity of hydropower will reach 120 million to 160 million kilowatts, and the installed capacity of nuclear power will reach 0.67 billion kilowatts. Wind power is new. The scale of additional machines will reach 120 million 160 million kilowatts. By 2020, the total amount of non-fossil energy use is about 770 million tons, accounting for 15.0% of primary energy consumption, of which non-fossil energy converted into electricity accounts for 84%. Electricity plays a central role in the development and utilization of non-fossil energy.
On the whole, with the acceleration of the pace of clean energy structure adjustment and the demand for efficient energy use, electricity will play an increasingly important role in the energy conversion and utilization system. By 2020, the proportion of China's energy-generating energy in primary energy consumption will increase from the current 40% to about 50%. Among them, about 65% of the new primary energy supply will be used for power generation. Through incremental optimization and inventory adjustment, the status of power balance in the energy balance has increased significantly, and the overall level of energy use in China will be greatly increased.
Rational control of total energy consumption, improvement of energy efficiency, and improvement of the level of electrification are fundamental measures
With the further increase in the proportion of coal and natural gas into electricity, the large-scale development and utilization of non-fossil energy such as hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power, as well as the rapid development of electrical energy substitution, China's electrification level will gradually increase. The experience at home and abroad has proved that the improvement of the level of electrification can improve the efficiency of comprehensive utilization of energy, which is conducive to the realization of the target of total energy consumption control. Research shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the level of electrification and energy intensity. According to statistics, in 1995, China's energy consumption accounted for a percentage point increase of terminal energy consumption, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased by 3.9%; after calculation, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, the proportion of energy consumption for terminal energy consumption increased by 1 percentage point, and the unit GDP could Consumption will drop by about 3%. The next decade is a crucial period for the in-depth development of China's industrialization and urbanization. Coordinated deployment from the national level to promote the electrification process is indispensable for improving China's energy efficiency and alleviating pressure on energy supply. By 2020, the proportion of energy consumption in the terminal energy consumption is expected to increase from the current 21% to about 27%, and further increase to about 30% in 2030, which will become China's largest end-user energy consumption.
The characteristics of the reverse distribution of China's energy resources and consumption centers determine the large-scale distribution pattern of coal, water, wind and solar energy. It is imperative to build a national backbone network.
The simultaneous transmission of coal and electricity is a strategic choice for the allocation of coal resources in the future. With the construction of the country's five comprehensive energy bases, the proportion of energy transmission carried by cross-regional transmission corridors will gradually increase, which will become an important part of the comprehensive energy transportation system. According to the general layout of coal development in the eastern region, the stable central region, and the western region, the new coal production in China will be mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Xinjiang, and other regions. The focus of coal production will gradually shift westward and northward, and production and consumption will not increase. The situation of balance will be further intensified. Due to scarcity of land resources, large pressure for environmental protection, and low degree of safety and security for power coal supply in eastern China, it is no longer appropriate to continue large-scale addition of coal power and large-scale transportation of coal. Compared with coal transportation, accelerating the development of cross-regional power transmission has good economic performance (the landing power price for cross-regional power transmission to the receiving power grid is lower than the on-grid tariff of the coal-fired power benchmark by 0.05 yuan/kWh or more), and the energy efficiency of the entire link is high. It will help ease the pressure on coal transportation and environmental pressure in the eastern region. In the future, China's coal and electricity distribution should gradually be tilted toward the resource-rich regions in the northern part of the country. Through the transmission of electricity, the coal resources can be allocated economically and efficiently. The new coal-fired power installations in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, and other provinces and regions can account for more than half of the country's total. The focus is to build a coal-power integrated large-scale coal and electricity base, accelerate the construction of cross-regional UHV transmission channels, and build a new type of integrated energy transportation system.
Focusing on decentralization and supplementation should be used as a model for the development of clean energy in the future in China. Objectively, it is necessary to build a national backbone network to ensure the realization of development goals and efficient resource allocation. Future resources and construction conditions have determined that China's hydropower, wind power, and solar power generation constructions will focus on decentralization and decentralization. The hydropower resources to be developed in China are mainly distributed in Sichuan, Yunnan, Tibet and other provinces and regions, accounting for more than 80% of the remaining technological developments. The wind power and solar energy resources are mainly located in the Three North regions. Coal resources in these areas are also very rich, and they can form complementary multi-energy, concentrated development and occupation of less resources and better economic indicators. To focus on the development of clean energy, it is necessary to solve the problem of insufficient local consumption. The trans-regional transmission configuration of the grid is a technically feasible and economical solution.
Before 2020, the country will add 150 million kilowatts of hydropower capacity, of which 80% will be concentrated in the southwest region. In 2020, the scale of hydropower transmission in the southwest will reach 80 million kilowatts or more. By 2020, the development scale of six large-scale wind power bases in the Three North region will exceed 100 million kilowatts, and the scale of trans-regional transportation and consumption should be over 70%. In order to solve the instability of wind power output, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Gansu wind power bases can co-ordinate the development and joint transportation with coal-fired power bases, and mainly use the network-to-network power transmission method to transport to Central, East, and South China load centers. Comprehensive analysis shows that based on national policy incentives, they are economically competitive, have flexible operations, and are highly secure.
In recent years, wind power has been decentralized and developed. Power grid companies have made unremitting efforts to accept wind power. From the experience of Europe, the scale of wind power development depends not only on the power supply structure, peaking capacity, cross-regional trans-national transmission intensity and balance adjustment, but also on incentives such as fiscal subsidies, price differences, and quotas. From a development perspective, the problems that have emerged at this stage will eventually be resolved.
For a long time to come, China’s energy deployment and construction focus will gradually shift to large energy bases in Shanxi, Ordos, Mengdong, Southwest China, and Xinjiang, while energy demand centers in the central and eastern regions will not be in a short period of time. A fundamental change has taken place. To realize the scientific development of energy and electricity, the key must be deployed in accordance with the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan, to accelerate the construction of the country's five major energy bases as an opportunity to accelerate the development of UHV power transmission, build a nationwide backbone network, and optimize the allocation of energy resources for a wider range. Providing basic platforms is not only in line with China's national conditions, but also can meet the objective needs of clean and low-carbon energy development. It is the only way for the sustainable development of energy and power in the future.
(The author is the dean of the National Grid Energy Research Institute)
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