2016 non-ferrous metal industry operation and 2017 outlook

In the face of the complicated domestic and international economic environment and the downward pressure on the domestic economy, the whole industry conscientiously implemented the policies and measures of the Party Central Committee and the State Council for steady growth, restructuring, and transformation, and promoted the supply-side structural reforms. The output is growing steadily and the benefits are clear...
Faced with the complicated domestic and international economic environment and the downward pressure on the domestic economy, the whole industry conscientiously implemented the policies and measures of the Party Central Committee and the State Council for steady growth, restructuring, and transformation, and promoted the supply-side structural reforms. The output increased steadily, the efficiency improved significantly, and the industry generally showed a stable operation momentum.

I. Operation of non-ferrous metal industry in 2016
(I) Steady growth in output In 2016, the output of ten non-ferrous metals was 52.83 million tons, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year, ranking first in the world for 15 consecutive years. Among them, refined copper, primary aluminum, lead and zinc production were 8.44 million tons, 31.87 million tons, 4.67 million tons, and 6.27 million tons, respectively, up 6%, 1.3%, 5.7%, and 2% year-on-year; copper and aluminum The output was 20.96 million tons and 57.96 million tons, respectively, up 12.5% ​​and 9.7% year-on-year.
(II) Significant improvement in efficiency In 2016, the industry's main business income was 6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%; the profit was 243 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.8%. Commonly used non-ferrous metals mining and smelting realized profits of 67.2 billion yuan and 127.5 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 133.6% and 18.6% respectively. The profit of aluminum smelting (including alumina, electrolytic aluminum and recycled aluminum) was 22.6 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1 billion over last year. Yuan; non-ferrous metal rolling processing achieved a profit of 108.2 billion yuan, an increase of 14.6%. The significant improvement in industry efficiency was mainly due to the adjustment of structure to promote transformation and increase efficiency, the disorderly competition was contained, and the market supply and demand relationship was improved.
(III) The price is gradually improving. In 2016, the average spot price of copper, aluminum, lead and zinc was 38.84 million yuan/ton, 124.91 million yuan/ton, 145.59 million yuan/ton and 167.29 million yuan/ton, respectively, which increased year-on-year. 6.5%, 3.5%, 11.1%, 10.1%; the average price in the first two months of 2017 was 471.65 million yuan / ton, 135.58 million yuan / ton, 186.54 million yuan / ton, 226.95 million yuan / ton, compared with the average price in 2016 They increased by 23.8%, 6.9%, 28.1%, and 35.7%, respectively.
(IV) Declining total import and export volume In 2016, the total import and export trade volume of China's major non-ferrous metals (including gold jewelry and parts trade) was US$117.14 billion, down 10.4% year-on-year. Among them: the import value was 77.11 billion US dollars, down 10.4% year-on-year; the export value was 40.03 billion US dollars, down 10.3% year-on-year. In 2016, China's electrolytic aluminum exports were 510,000 tons, accounting for 1.6% of domestic production; aluminum exports were 4.07 million tons, down 3.4% year-on-year.
(V) Investment in fixed assets stabilized According to the preliminary statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2016, China's non-ferrous metal industry (including independent gold enterprises) completed fixed assets investment of 668.73 billion yuan, down 6.7% year-on-year, compared with the previous three quarters. Narrowed. Among them, private project investment was 546.90 billion yuan, down 6.3% year-on-year, and the decline was 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous three quarters. The proportion of investment in the industry was 81.8%.

Second, the main problems exist
The main problems in the current industry development are as follows: First, the intensive processing and application technology research and development are insufficient, and the products have poor quality stability and low level of localization of high-end materials. Second, some varieties of smelting and low-end processing capacity surplus, the company has long been in a state of low profit and loss. Third, the production costs of enterprises continue to increase, the financial costs remain high, and the debt burden is heavy.

Third, the main situation facing and the outlook for 2017
In 2017, the domestic and international economic environment is more complicated and severe, and the downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large. The new normal characteristics of China's economic development have become more apparent. In accordance with the "Guiding Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Promoting a Good Market Environment to Promote the Transformation of Non-ferrous Metal Industry to Promote Transformation and Increase Benefits" (Guo Ban Fa [2016] No. 42) Work Deployment and "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Development Plan (2016-2020)" Regarding the work arrangement, the next step, we will focus on transforming the development mode of the industry, from scale expansion to optimizing stocks and controlling increments; from low-cost resources and factor inputs to innovation-driven, accelerating the development of high-end materials and implementing smart manufacturing, and improving medium and long-term growth. power.
Considering the current impact of rising coal energy prices and transportation costs, and weak investment on the industry's continued recovery, it is expected that the output of major non-ferrous metal products in China will increase by 4.8% in 2017, and the industrial added value of non-ferrous metals industry will increase by about 6%. Accelerating supply-side reform, de-capacity, de-leveraging, short-boarding, accelerating industry transformation and upgrading, and reducing costs and increasing efficiency will remain the key tasks for the management of non-ferrous metals industry in 2017.

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