Iron and steel raw materials market supply and demand conflicts eased

At the end of December, the domestic steel raw material market experienced fluctuations, with some key materials seeing significant price increases. According to Luo Baihui, the imported iron ore spot market is expected to continue rising in the near term, while local iron ore fines remain mixed. The steel billet market is undergoing a weak consolidation, and the coke market is on a steady upward trend, while the shipping market remains sluggish. The imported iron ore market continued its upward movement, with external prices surging and domestic port spot prices also rising sharply. With limited supply and approaching Chinese New Year holidays, market participants are hesitant to sell, leading to stable transactions. Meanwhile, crude steel production saw a slight decline month-on-month, as the pace of capacity expansion remained under control. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, average daily crude steel output in mid-December dropped to 1.91 million tons, down by 34,100 tons or 1.76% compared to the previous period. Despite entering the traditional off-season, steel sales performance remained strong, particularly in the fourth quarter. The daily average steel sales for 76 key steel enterprises in mid-December reached 1,177.4 thousand tons, up 5.75% year-on-year. Sales of long products and sheets also increased, showing resilience in demand. Steel inventories at key companies rebounded to nearly two-month highs, reaching 10.86 million tons in mid-December. This reflects a 5.1% increase from the previous ten-day period. Although inventory levels were still below historical averages, the market showed signs of recovery. Steel ex-factory prices rose by 2.43%, with the average selling price of 76 key steel companies reaching 4,177 yuan/ton. Long product prices increased by 0.55%, while plate prices rose by 3.14%. The overall market sentiment improved, driven by controlled production and stable demand. Domestic iron concentrate markets showed mixed performance, with some regions experiencing price fluctuations. Some steel mills raised procurement prices for iron powder, while others saw weaker demand. The steel billet market faced a weak consolidation, with prices dropping in some areas. However, buyer caution and limited transaction volumes persisted. The domestic coke market saw a steady rise, with prices increasing by 15–80 yuan/ton. Steel mills raised purchase prices, and the market remained tight due to strong downstream demand. The scrap market remained stable, with some areas seeing small price increases. However, traders remained cautious amid seasonal weakness. In the pig iron market, prices in some regions rose by 50 yuan/ton. Despite a slight correction in billet prices, the market remained in a wait-and-see stance. Supply remained tight, but transactions were active, and inventory levels fell significantly. On the shipping front, the market was weak, with reduced cargo flows due to the Christmas holiday. Freight rates from Brazil and Western Australia to China declined, and the BDI index fell to 699 points. Overall, the shipping sector remained subdued. Investment strategy: With controlled steel mill production and strong off-season sales, supply-demand imbalances have eased, and steel prices have risen. Inventory levels at key steel companies have rebounded, and social stock levels have also increased. We maintain our positive outlook, believing that industry fundamentals are improving, and steel prices still have room for further growth.

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